Safehold (SAFE)
Market Price (11/8/2025): $13.28 | Market Cap: $952.9 Mil
Sector: Real Estate | Industry: Other Specialized REITs
Safehold (SAFE)
Market Price (11/8/2025): $13.28
Market Cap: $952.9 Mil
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Other Specialized REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 5.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13% | Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -133% | Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 462% |
| Attractive operating margins Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 80% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | ||
| Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 38% |
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 5.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13% |
| Attractive operating margins Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 80% |
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 38% |
| Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -133% |
| Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 462% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
SAFE Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SAFE Return | 7% | 79% | -61% | -21% | -18% | -28% | -65% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 74% | -23% | 4% | 36% | -7% | 134% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SAFE Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 33% | 67% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 68% | 40% | 50% | 65% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SAFE Max Drawdown | -58% | -3% | -67% | -49% | -22% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -4% | -35% | -24% | -15% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IRM, LAMR, EPR, PW, GLPI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/7/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SAFE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -88.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 783.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 177.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 341 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -54.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 705 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 6813.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to IRM, LAMR, EPR, PW, GLPI
In The Past
Safehold's stock fell -88.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/3/2021. A -88.7% loss requires a 783.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SAFE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -1.9% | -1.9% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -1.9% | -1.9% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Safehold
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,120 |
| Op Inc LTM | 451 |
| FCF LTM | 230 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 226 |
| CFO LTM | 644 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 625 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 39.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 42.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.3 |
| P/S | 5.2 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 17.9 |
| P/CFO | 13.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 35.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -43.4% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -10.7% | ||
| 8/5/2025 | -1.3% | 2.5% | 11.8% |
| 5/6/2025 | 4.0% | -0.3% | -0.7% |
| 2/5/2025 | 7.9% | 3.5% | 12.7% |
| 10/28/2024 | -4.4% | -9.9% | -12.2% |
| 7/29/2024 | 2.4% | -0.4% | 12.0% |
| 5/6/2024 | 3.7% | 4.2% | 0.5% |
| 2/12/2024 | -5.9% | 0.6% | -2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 5.0% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -7.3% | -13.0% |
| Max Positive | 7.9% | 10.4% | 21.8% |
| Max Negative | -11.4% | -14.5% | -56.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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