COPT Defense Properties (CDP)
Market Price (11/2/2025): $28.14 | Market Cap: $3.2 Bil
Sector: Real Estate | Industry: Office REITs
COPT Defense Properties (CDP)
Market Price (11/2/2025): $28.14
Market Cap: $3.2 Bil
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Office REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, Dividend Yield is 4.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 9.6% | Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% | Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 78% |
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% | Weak revenue growth Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.8% | |
| Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 20% |
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, Dividend Yield is 4.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 9.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% |
| Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 20% |
| Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% |
| Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 78% |
| Weak revenue growth Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.8% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CDP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The approximate 4.4% movement in COPT Defense Properties (CDP) stock from July 31, 2025, to November 1, 2025, can primarily be attributed to several positive developments, most notably the strong third-quarter 2025 earnings report released in late October.
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: COPT Defense Properties reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with Funds From Operations (FFO) per share reaching $0.69, significantly surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $0.35 or $0.68. The company also exceeded revenue forecasts, reporting $188.8 million against an anticipated $176.36 million or $188.1 million. This marked the company's 21st consecutive quarter of year-over-year FFO growth.
2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Guidance: Following the strong third-quarter performance, management increased its full-year 2025 FFO per share guidance to a midpoint of $2.70, indicating a 5.1% year-over-year growth. This updated outlook also included raised projections for same-property cash Net Operating Income (NOI) growth (3.75%-4.25%) and year-end occupancy (94.0%-94.4%).
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CDP Return | -7% | 12% | -3% | 4% | 26% | -6% | 23% |
| Peers Return | -15% | 26% | -40% | -3% | -15% | -14% | -54% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CDP Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 57% | 37% | 48% | 43% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CDP Max Drawdown | -44% | -5% | -17% | -16% | -12% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -7% | -45% | -38% | -29% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HIW, HPP, PSTL, FSP, ARE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/31/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CDP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1643 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 161.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to HIW, HPP, PSTL, FSP, ARE
In The Past
COPT Defense Properties's stock fell -25.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/29/2022. A -25.8% loss requires a 34.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CDP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for COPT Defense Properties
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 774 |
| Op Inc LTM | 117 |
| FCF LTM | 186 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 227 |
| CFO LTM | 209 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 250 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 44.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 42.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 42.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 40.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/EBIT | 4.6 |
| P/E | 10.4 |
| P/CFO | 8.7 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 1.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -22.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -19.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -39.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -96.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Meade/Baltimore/Washington (BW) Corridor | 290 | 274 | 254 | 253 | |
| Northern Virginia Defense/ information technology (NoVA Defense/IT) | 80 | 74 | 58 | 56 | |
| Other | 72 | 69 | 70 | 4 | 3 |
| Lackland Air Force Base | 67 | 63 | 51 | 51 | |
| Construction contract and other service revenues | 60 | 155 | 108 | 71 | 114 |
| Redstone Arsenal | 55 | 39 | 23 | 17 | |
| Navy Support | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | |
| Data Center Shells | 27 | 36 | 29 | 27 | |
| Revenues from discontinued operations | 0 | -2 | -30 | -27 | |
| Defense/IT Portfolio | 487 | ||||
| Wholesale Data Center | 30 | 27 | 29 | ||
| Regional Office | 61 | 60 | |||
| Total | 685 | 739 | 664 | 582 | 641 |
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Meade/Baltimore/Washington (BW) Corridor | 1,446 | 1,388 | 1,278 | 1,281 | |
| Redstone Arsenal | 555 | 454 | 281 | 139 | |
| Northern Virginia Defense/ information technology (NoVA Defense/IT) | 490 | 488 | 393 | 397 | |
| Data Center Shells | 430 | 461 | 420 | 279 | |
| Other assets | 365 | 190 | 191 | ||
| Other | 313 | 554 | 541 | 4 | 4 |
| Non-operating property assets | 258 | 467 | 622 | ||
| Lackland Air Force Base | 189 | 194 | 142 | 147 | |
| Navy Support | 164 | 169 | 179 | 184 | |
| Operating properties lease liabilities included in segment assets | 34 | 31 | 17 | ||
| Investment in unconsolidated real estate joint ventures (UJV) deficit balance included in segment | 3 | ||||
| Defense/IT Portfolio | 2,842 | ||||
| Wholesale Data Center | 193 | 202 | 203 | ||
| Regional Office | 490 | 392 | |||
| Total | 4,247 | 3,708 | 3,575 | 4,077 | 3,854 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 3.1% | ||
| 7/28/2025 | -1.3% | -0.3% | 2.2% |
| 4/28/2025 | -4.2% | -1.8% | 2.7% |
| 2/6/2025 | -0.8% | -6.3% | -8.7% |
| 10/28/2024 | -0.2% | -0.3% | 0.4% |
| 7/29/2024 | 2.9% | -0.2% | 3.5% |
| 4/25/2024 | 3.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% |
| 2/8/2024 | 2.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -2.3% | -4.0% |
| Max Positive | 3.4% | 9.2% | 21.3% |
| Max Negative | -5.3% | -6.3% | -15.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11012021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | DENTON ROBERT L | 5192025 | Sell | 26.70 | 4,398 | 117,449 | Form | ||
| 1 | Snider Britt A. | EVP & COO | 2262025 | Buy | 26.93 | 1,000 | 26,930 | 80,790 | Form |
| 2 | BUDORICK STEPHEN E | PRESIDENT/CEO | 11082024 | Sell | 32.54 | 8,854 | 288,145 | 5,007,936 | Form |
| 3 | BUDORICK STEPHEN E | PRESIDENT/CEO | 11072024 | Sell | 32.64 | 9,000 | 293,724 | 5,311,052 | Form |
| 4 | BUDORICK STEPHEN E | PRESIDENT/CEO | 11062024 | Sell | 32.41 | 9,000 | 291,645 | 5,565,105 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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