Saul Centers (BFS)
Market Price (11/3/2025): $29.615 | Market Cap: $716.7 Mil
Sector: Real Estate | Industry: Retail REITs
Saul Centers (BFS)
Market Price (11/3/2025): $29.615
Market Cap: $716.7 Mil
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Retail REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 8.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.6%, FCF Yield is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89% | Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 218% |
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% | ||
| Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 21% |
| Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 8.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.6%, FCF Yield is 16% |
| Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% |
| Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 21% |
| Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89% |
| Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 218% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
BFS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the approximate -6.3% movement in Saul Centers (symbol: BFS) stock from July 31, 2025, to November 1, 2025:
1. Saul Centers reported a miss on second-quarter 2025 earnings and revenue. On August 7, 2025, the company announced earnings per share (EPS) of $0.73, falling short of analysts' consensus estimates of $0.75. Additionally, revenue for the quarter was $69.43 million, which was below the anticipated $71.39 million.
2. Net income was negatively impacted by the initial operations of Twinbrook Quarter Phase I. The second-quarter 2025 earnings report indicated that net income was adversely affected by $5.4 million due to the initial operations of Twinbrook Quarter Phase I, primarily stemming from a reduction in capitalized interest. This contributed to a decrease in net income and EPS compared to the prior year's comparable quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BFS Return | -36% | 77% | -19% | 3% | 5% | -18% | -20% |
| Peers Return | -26% | 48% | -8% | 11% | 13% | -1% | 27% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BFS Win Rate | 33% | 83% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 47% | 50% | 57% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BFS Max Drawdown | -53% | -4% | -29% | -16% | -9% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -5% | -27% | -17% | -8% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: O, FRT, GTY, WSR, SPG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/31/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BFS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -67.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 209.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2678 days | 1480 days |
Compare to O, FRT, GTY, WSR, SPG
In The Past
Saul Centers's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BFS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Saul Centers
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | - |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| Rev LTM | 766 |
| Op Inc LTM | 285 |
| FCF LTM | 233 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 197 |
| CFO LTM | 364 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 345 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 43.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 43.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 54.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 53.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 46.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 49.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| P/EBIT | 14.2 |
| P/E | 22.4 |
| P/CFO | 13.0 |
| Total Yield | 9.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | - |
| 3M Rtn | - |
| 6M Rtn | - |
| 12M Rtn | - |
| 3Y Rtn | - |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -64.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shopping Centers | 179 | 171 | 170 | 162 | 168 |
| Mixed-Use Properties | 78 | 74 | 70 | 63 | 64 |
| Revenue adjustments | 1 | 1 | |||
| Corporate and Other | 0 | ||||
| Total | 257 | 246 | 239 | 225 | 232 |
Operating Income by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shopping Centers | 140 | 135 | |||
| Mixed-Use Properties | 49 | 46 | |||
| Revenue adjustments | 1 | 1 | |||
| General and administrative | -23 | -22 | |||
| Depreciation and amortization of deferred leasing costs | -48 | -49 | |||
| Total | 118 | 110 |
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mixed-Use Properties | 1,057 | 886 | 778 | 644 | 625 |
| Shopping Centers | 918 | 928 | 947 | 975 | 980 |
| Other assets | 19 | 20 | |||
| Corporate and Other | 22 | 27 | 13 | ||
| Total | 1,994 | 1,833 | 1,747 | 1,646 | 1,618 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11042021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Guevara Bettina T. | Exec. VP /Chf Legal & Adm Off | 5282025 | Buy | 33.00 | 210 | 6,930 | 191,136 | Form |
| 1 | SAUL B FRANCIS II | Chairman & CEO | 5152025 | Buy | 33.59 | 7,179 | 241,163 | 7,208,226 | Form |
| 2 | Heard Carlos Lawrence | Senior Vice President & CFO | 12192024 | Buy | 21.69 | 300 | 6,507 | 15,183 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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