What’s Next For Ralph Lauren Stock?

Note: Ralph Lauren’s fiscal year 2023 ended on April 1, 2023.

After a 10% increase year-to-date (YTD), at the current price of around $116 per share, we believe Ralph Lauren’s stock (NYSE: RL), a company engaged in the design, marketing, and distribution of premium lifestyle products, including apparel, accessories, fragrances, and home furnishings, could see a modest further rise. The company has adjusted well to the inflationary environment. Consequently, the retailer’s gross margin rose to almost 69% (up 180 basis points year-over-year). The outlook for the company indicates both revenue growth and expanded margins from last year. For the full year, the company expects top-line growth to be led by Asia, up double digits, followed by a low single-digit increase in Europe. However, it still expects a low single-digit decline in North America based on softer spring trends in the first half and wholesale timing shifts in Q1. RL also anticipates operating margin expansion of approximately 30 to 50 basis points in constant currency in the range of 12.3% to 12.5% in FY’24. The company also expects an increase in gross margin of about 100 basis points as a result of decreased freight costs, favorable geographical and sales mix, and continued growth in average unit retail (AUR), more than offsetting the impact of raw material inflation.

Notably, RL stock had a Sharpe Ratio of 0.3 since early 2017, which is lower than the figure of 0.6 for the S&P 500 Index over the same period. Compare this with the Sharpe of 1.2 for the Trefis Reinforced Value portfolio. Sharpe is a measure of return per unit of risk, and high-performance portfolios can provide the best of both worlds.

In Q1 2023 (ended July 1, 2023), Ralph Lauren’s revenues grew slowly by just 0.4% year-over-year (y-o-y) to $1.50 billion. The company saw a weak demand from the North American market, also its biggest market, with a share of more than 40% of total revenues. Revenue growth has been impacted by both exchange rate differences and a change in the timing of receipts. On an adjusted basis, net income was $158 million or $2.34 per share compared to $1.88 per share a year ago.

We have revised RL’s Valuation to $124 per share, based on a $9.42 expected EPS and a 13.1x P/E multiple for the fiscal year 2024 – almost 6% higher than the current market price. We forecast RL’s Revenues to be $6.6 billion for the fiscal year 2024, up 2% y-o-y.

It is also helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out how Ralph Lauren’s Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/1/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016