Ralph Lauren (RL)
Market Price (4/29/2026): $366.825 | Market Cap: $22.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Ralph Lauren (RL)
Market Price (4/29/2026): $366.825Market Cap: $22.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.0% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.4 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. | Key risksRL key risks include [1] its high revenue dependence on the U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.0% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Key risksRL key risks include [1] its high revenue dependence on the U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Ralph Lauren reported strong fiscal third-quarter 2026 holiday results and subsequently raised its full-year outlook. The company's earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2026 reached $6.22, surpassing analysts' expectations of $5.80 by 7.24%. Quarterly revenue also increased by 12.2% year-over-year to $2.41 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.30 billion. Following these results, Ralph Lauren increased its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to high single to low double digits and projected a full-year operating margin expansion of approximately 100-140 basis points.
2. The company's "Next Great Chapter" brand elevation strategy successfully drove significant gross margin expansion and increased direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales. This strategy focuses on reducing reliance on discounted wholesale channels and prioritizing high-end digital platforms and company-owned stores, leading to substantial increases in gross margins. In Q3 fiscal 2026, the Average Unit Retail (AUR) grew by 18%, largely due to reduced discounting and strong full-price sell-through rates. Furthermore, AI-driven personalization on global websites contributed to a 15% increase in digital sales.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.0% change in RL stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 3.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 352.64 | 366.87 | 4.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,571 | 7,833 | 3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.3% | 11.7% | 3.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.2 | 24.4 | -3.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 61 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RL | 4.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | 61.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.8% | 65.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.6% change in RL stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 311.91 | 366.87 | 17.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,286 | 7,833 | 7.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.9% | 11.7% | 7.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.9 | 24.4 | 1.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 61 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RL | 17.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | 60.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.0% | 62.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 68.1% change in RL stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 218.19 | 366.87 | 68.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,950 | 7,833 | 12.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.1% | 11.7% | 15.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.4 | 24.4 | 26.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 62 | 61 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 68.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RL | 68.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.3% | 68.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 19.5% | 69.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 230.5% change in RL stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 70.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 111.01 | 366.87 | 230.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,426 | 7,833 | 21.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.0% | 11.7% | 46.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.3 | 24.4 | 70.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 61 | 8.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 230.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RL | 230.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.5% | 57.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 60.4% | 55.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RL Return | 17% | -8% | 40% | 63% | 55% | 5% | 296% |
| Peers Return | 12% | -40% | 10% | 10% | 27% | 31% | 34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 91% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RL Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 42% | 50% | 52% | 47% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RL Max Drawdown | -3% | -28% | 0% | -5% | -21% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -58% | -31% | -33% | -41% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TPR, VFC, PVH, FOSL, VRA. See RL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 444 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 339 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,575 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 220.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 611 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to TPR, VFC, PVH, FOSL, VRA
In The Past
Ralph Lauren's stock fell -39.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -39.9% loss requires a 66.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Ralph Lauren (RL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
An American Hermès.
Like Williams Sonoma or Restoration Hardware, but also a major fashion house for high-end American apparel, accessories, and fragrances.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Apparel: A wide range of men's, women's, and children's clothing, including various collections and brands.
- Accessories: A diverse collection of footwear, eyewear, watches, jewelry, scarves, hats, gloves, umbrellas, belts, and leather goods like handbags and luggage.
- Home Furnishings and Decor: Products for the home, including bed and bath lines, furniture, fabric, wallcoverings, lighting, tabletop items, floor coverings, and giftware.
- Fragrances: A selection of men's and women's fragrances, marketed under various brand names and collections.
- Restaurant Services: Operates fine dining restaurants and coffee shop concepts, providing hospitality experiences.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ralph Lauren (symbol: RL) sells its products through a dual model, both to other businesses (wholesale) and directly to consumers (DTC). Given the extensive number of directly operated retail stores (548) and concession-based shop-within-shops (650), along with its digital commerce sites, a significant portion of its sales are made directly to individuals. Therefore, we will describe up to three categories of customers that it serves directly.
The major customer categories for Ralph Lauren are:
- Affluent and Style-Conscious Individuals: This primary segment includes customers who appreciate timeless, sophisticated, and luxurious fashion. They are drawn to the premium and high-end offerings from brands like Ralph Lauren Collection, Ralph Lauren Purple Label, Polo Ralph Lauren, and Lauren Ralph Lauren, seeking quality apparel, accessories, home goods, and fragrances that embody classic American elegance and a refined lifestyle.
- Lifestyle-Oriented Consumers with an Active/Preppy Bent: This category targets individuals who embrace a preppy, sporty, and aspirational lifestyle. Brands such as Polo Ralph Lauren, Polo Golf Ralph Lauren, Ralph Lauren Golf, and RLX Ralph Lauren cater to customers interested in activewear, performance gear, and casual yet refined attire suitable for sports, leisure, and upscale social events.
- Consumers Seeking Accessible Luxury and Quality Staples: This broader group includes individuals who are attracted to the brand's iconic status and quality at various price points. They might purchase everyday wear from Polo Ralph Lauren, Lauren Ralph Lauren, or explore contemporary styles from Club Monaco. This segment values brand recognition, enduring style, and quality for their wardrobes and homes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Ralph Lauren, Executive Chairman and Chief Creative Officer
Ralph Lauren founded the Ralph Lauren Corporation in 1967. He stepped down as CEO in September 2015 but remains the Executive Chairman and Chief Creative Officer.
Patrice Louvet, President and Chief Executive Officer
Patrice Louvet joined Ralph Lauren in July 2017 as President and Chief Executive Officer. Before joining Ralph Lauren, he spent nearly three decades in leadership roles at Procter & Gamble (P&G). His roles at P&G included group president for global beauty and hair care units from 2015 to 2017. He also previously served as a naval officer in the French Navy. Louvet is also on the board of Bacardi Limited and Danone, and is part of the CEO Advisory Council of the Fashion Pact.
Justin Picicci, Chief Financial Officer
Justin Picicci was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Ralph Lauren Corporation effective May 23, 2024. He joined the company in 2006 and has held various senior finance leadership positions within Ralph Lauren, including Enterprise CFO, Asia Pacific CFO, Global Company Controller and Head of Procurement, and North America CFO.
David Lauren, Chief Branding and Innovation Officer & Vice Chairman
David Lauren, son of founder Ralph Lauren, joined the company in 2000. He is responsible for overseeing the company's innovation, global marketing, public relations, advertising, digital content, digital design, and brand communications teams. He became a member of the Board of Directors in August 2013 and was named Vice Chairman of the Board in 2016. He also serves as the President of the Ralph Lauren Corporate Foundation.
Halide Alagöz, Chief Product & Merchandising Officer
Halide Alagöz joined Ralph Lauren in 2016. She is responsible for the company's end-to-end product life cycle. Prior to Ralph Lauren, she spent 18 years at H&M, where she managed supply chain operations and focused on sustainability initiatives.
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Sensitivity to Fashion Trends and Consumer Preferences: As a designer, marketer, and distributor of lifestyle products including apparel, home goods, and fragrances, Ralph Lauren's business is highly susceptible to shifts in fashion trends and consumer preferences across its diverse brand portfolio. Failure to anticipate or adapt to evolving tastes and macroeconomic factors affecting discretionary spending could lead to decreased demand for its products, increased inventory, and reduced sales and profitability.
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Reliance on Brand Image and Reputation: Ralph Lauren's extensive portfolio of brands, such as Ralph Lauren Collection, Polo Ralph Lauren, and Lauren Ralph Lauren, as well as its restaurant concepts, are built upon a strong brand image and reputation. Any negative publicity, product quality issues, ethical concerns in its supply chain, or ineffective marketing campaigns could damage consumer perception, erode brand loyalty, and significantly impact sales across its global operations.
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Intense Competition: The markets for apparel, accessories, home products, and fragrances are highly competitive and fragmented. Ralph Lauren faces competition from numerous international, national, and local brands, including other luxury fashion houses, mass-market retailers, and emerging direct-to-consumer businesses. This intense competition could put pressure on pricing, market share, and require continuous investment in product innovation and marketing, potentially impacting profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The rapid growth and mainstream adoption of online re-commerce platforms for luxury and premium goods represent a clear emerging threat. These platforms, such as The RealReal and Vestiaire Collective, enable consumers to purchase authenticated second-hand Ralph Lauren products, including apparel and accessories, often at a significant discount. This trend directly competes with the sale of new items, potentially reducing demand for Ralph Lauren's primary product offerings and altering traditional consumer purchasing behavior in the luxury and premium market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable markets for Ralph Lauren's main products and services are substantial across various global and regional segments.
Apparel
The global luxury clothing market was valued at an estimated USD 274.8 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 364.4 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8%. North America and Europe are identified as the largest markets for luxury clothing.
Home Products
The global luxury home decor market reached an estimated USD 178.06 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow significantly to USD 618.07 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 16.93%. In 2024, North America held 34% of the global luxury home decor market share, followed by Asia Pacific at 28%, and Europe at 26%.
Fragrances
The luxury perfume market size globally is estimated at USD 56.28 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach USD 86.23 billion by 2031, with an 8.91% CAGR during the forecast period. In 2025, Europe held 28.95% of the market share, while Asia-Pacific is experiencing the fastest growth. North America also commanded the largest revenue share of 37.3% in the luxury perfume market in 2025.
Restaurant Concepts
For fine dining, the global fine dining restaurants market is projected to be USD 191.11 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 289.87 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 7.19%. Regarding coffee shops, the global coffee shops and cafes market size is projected at USD 67.49 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 109.06 billion by 2034. North America leads in terms of the number of café outlets, holding approximately 35% of the global share, followed by Europe at about 27%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily outlined in its "Next Great Chapter: Drive" strategic plan. These drivers focus on brand elevation, market expansion, and enhanced consumer engagement.
The expected drivers of future revenue growth include:
- Global Expansion and Brand Elevation: Ralph Lauren aims to expand and elevate its lifestyle brand positioning globally. This strategy focuses on enhancing quality, attracting new customers, and boosting customer loyalty, thereby increasing customer lifetime value. The company plans to expand into high-growth markets, particularly in Asia (with China showing significant growth), while also strengthening its presence in existing core regions.
- Driving Core Products and Expanding into Underdeveloped Categories: The company intends to continue driving sales of its iconic core products, which currently account for a significant portion of its revenue, while simultaneously pursuing accelerated growth in high-potential, underdeveloped categories that align with evolving consumer lifestyles.
- Winning in Key Cities with a Digitally-Led Consumer Ecosystem: Ralph Lauren plans to scale a cohesive, digitally-led ecosystem across 30 major global cities and begin developing this model in an additional 20 cities. This involves accelerating digital transformation through investments in AI, data analytics, personalization, mobile capabilities, and omnichannel experiences. Expanding direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, which have demonstrated strong growth, is a key part of this strategy.
- Strategic Pricing and Average Unit Retail (AUR) Growth: Consistent increases in average unit retail (AUR) prices, driven by reduced discounting, strong full-price demand, and a favorable product mix, are expected to contribute to revenue growth and gross margin expansion. AI-driven analytics are utilized to optimize pricing strategies.
- Leveraging Technology and Data Analytics: Ralph Lauren is bolstering its growth strategy through advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics. These capabilities are being integrated across the business to improve demand forecasting, optimize pricing strategies, enhance inventory planning, and support overall digital transformation efforts, ultimately leading to more efficient operations and increased sales.
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Share Repurchases
- Ralph Lauren's Board of Directors authorized a new $1.5 billion stock repurchase program on May 22, 2025.
- The company repurchased approximately $350 million of Class A Common Stock during fiscal year 2026, as of February 5, 2026.
- Annual share repurchases were $480.9 million in fiscal year 2025 and $449.7 million in fiscal year 2024.
Share Issuance
- The number of outstanding shares for Ralph Lauren has shown a decline over the last few fiscal years, indicating net repurchases rather than issuances.
- Shares outstanding were 61.5 million at the end of fiscal year 2025, down from 63.3 million in fiscal year 2024 and 65.6 million in fiscal year 2023.
Outbound Investments
- On January 31, 2022, Ralph Lauren announced a strategic limited partnership with Franklin Venture Partners to invest in innovative consumer technology companies, with a focus on women-led businesses.
- This partnership builds upon a prior minority investment made in Natural Fiber Welding, Inc. (NFW), a startup specializing in sustainable material science.
Capital Expenditures
- Ralph Lauren's capital expenditures were approximately $216.2 million in fiscal year 2025 and $164.8 million in fiscal year 2024.
- For fiscal year 2026, the company plans capital expenditures of approximately 4% to 5% of its revenue.
- Capital expenditures are focused on advancing digital and omnichannel expansion, upgrading technology, and enhancing the customer experience to support the company's "Next Great Chapter: Accelerate" plan.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to RL.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PATK | Patrick Industries | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
| 03312020 | RL | Ralph Lauren | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 84.3% | -8.7% |
| 12312016 | RL | Ralph Lauren | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.2% | 17.5% | -26.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 55.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.8 |
| Rev LTM | 7,674 |
| Op Inc LTM | 584 |
| FCF LTM | 424 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 609 |
| CFO LTM | 574 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 781 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 32.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -6.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.8 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.8 |
| P/EBIT | 15.2 |
| P/E | 28.6 |
| P/CFO | 11.0 |
| Total Yield | 1.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 89.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 22.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 61.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -55.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $366.87 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 22.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/12/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $358.48 | $335.24 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 2.3% | 9.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 37.6% | 31.1% |
| Downside Capture | 1.04 | 0.72 |
| Upside Capture | 150.27 | 149.31 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 65.4% | 59.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.80 | 1.70 | 1.44 | 1.37 | 1.39 | 1.30 |
| Up Beta | 3.08 | 0.88 | 1.14 | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.28 |
| Down Beta | 1.77 | 1.85 | 1.46 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.24 |
| Up Capture | 179% | 213% | 163% | 175% | 224% | 328% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 23 | 33 | 65 | 133 | 393 |
| Down Capture | 148% | 147% | 135% | 120% | 120% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 19 | 30 | 61 | 119 | 358 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RL | 69.1% | 31.0% | 1.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 19.5% | 18.8% | 0.81 | 57.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.5% | 12.5% | 1.92 | 59.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 38.6% | 27.2% | 1.18 | 1.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.9% | 18.0% | 1.95 | -17.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.4% | 13.4% | 0.75 | 31.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.0% | 42.1% | -0.39 | 27.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RL | 27.1% | 36.6% | 0.74 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.5% | 23.8% | 0.24 | 59.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 60.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.8% | 0.92 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.8% | 19.1% | 0.63 | 12.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 44.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.3% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 24.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RL | 16.8% | 38.3% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.5% | 22.0% | 0.52 | 56.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 56.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | -1.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.9% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 17.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 44.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 14.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/5/2026 | -4.5% | 1.4% | -4.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -0.6% | 7.4% | 12.5% |
| 8/7/2025 | -6.5% | -0.3% | 3.0% |
| 5/22/2025 | 1.3% | 1.4% | -1.2% |
| 2/6/2025 | 9.7% | 9.6% | -6.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | 6.6% | 1.3% | 10.9% |
| 8/7/2024 | -3.4% | -1.5% | 5.1% |
| 5/23/2024 | 3.3% | 12.9% | 12.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 7.0% | 12.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -2.7% | -7.6% |
| Max Positive | 16.8% | 20.8% | 19.6% |
| Max Negative | -9.7% | -8.4% | -13.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/22/2025 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/25/2023 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/24/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue Growth | 5.0% | Higher New | |||||
| Q4 2026 Operating Margin Change | -1.0% | Lower New | |||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 10.5% | 75.0% | Raised | Guidance: 6.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Operating Margin Expansion | 1.2% | 71.4% | Raised | Guidance: 0.7% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | 20.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 20.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 0.04 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.04 for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue Growth | 5.0% | ||||||
| Q3 2026 Operating Margin | 0.7% | ||||||
| Q3 2026 Tax Rate | 22.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 6.0% | 71.4% | Raised | Guidance: 3.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Operating Margin | 0.7% | 40.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Tax Rate | 20.0% | 2.6% | Raised | Guidance: 19.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 0.04 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.04 for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alagoz, Halide | Chief Product & Merch. Officer | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 362.00 | 1,120 | 405,440 | 7,642,906 | Form |
| 2 | Louvet, Patrice | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 354.22 | 47,000 | 16,648,555 | 30,304,621 | Form |
| 3 | Alagoz, Halide | Chief Product Officer | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 366.00 | 1,882 | 688,812 | 8,137,278 | Form |
| 4 | Alagoz, Halide | Chief Product Officer | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 317.00 | 2,337 | 740,829 | 7,644,455 | Form |
| 5 | Alagoz, Halide | Chief Product Officer | Direct | Sell | 8282025 | 295.00 | 5,282 | 1,558,190 | 7,803,340 | Form |
RL Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The score of 7 reflects a high-quality business with a widening competitive moat and elite management executing a sound strategy. The valuation, while at a premium, is justified by superior performance. The primary constraint is the risk-reward skew, which is relatively balanced due to the stock's recent strong performance and its vulnerability to a cyclical consumer slowdown in its core North American market. It is a high-quality company to accumulate on any macro-driven pullbacks.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Quality Compounder / StalwartThe company has successfully executed its 'Next Great Chapter' turnaround, shifting from a challenged wholesale model to a highly profitable, direct-to-consumer (DTC) and international-focused business. It now exhibits the traits of a Type B stalwart: strong brand equity enabling pricing power (18% AUR growth), consistent earnings beats, expanding margins, and an accretive capital allocation strategy.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for Ralph Lauren's value creation is the ongoing, deliberate shift away from the mature, lower-margin North American wholesale market towards higher-margin international geographies (Asia & Europe) and the direct-to-consumer channel. This is not a cyclical story but a structural change in the business model that leads to higher, more sustainable profitability.
- International revenue now comprises the majority of the business at 57% in FY2025.
- Asia revenue accelerated to 22% YoY growth in Q3 FY26, with China growing over 30%.
- The company has achieved 19+ consecutive quarters of Average Unit Retail (AUR) growth, with the latest quarter showing a remarkable 18% increase.
- DTC channels now represent approximately two-thirds of total revenue, giving the company direct control over pricing and brand presentation.
PRIMARY RISK
The biggest risk to the thesis is a macroeconomic downturn in North America that disproportionately impacts the 'aspirational' consumer. A pullback in discretionary spending would force Ralph Lauren to increase promotional activity to move inventory, directly reversing the AUR growth and brand elevation strategy that underpins the entire margin expansion story.
- North America revenue growth of 8% in Q3 FY26 is already lagging significantly behind Asia's 22% growth.
- Management has explicitly cited a cautious outlook driven by potential downturns in US consumer confidence.
- The U.S. personal savings rate fell to 4.0% in February 2026, indicating reduced discretionary spending capacity.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Average Unit Retail (AUR) Growth | >8% YoY | This is the most direct indicator of brand health and pricing power. Sustained high-single-digit growth is critical to validating the brand elevation thesis and supporting gross margin expansion. |
| Asia Segment Revenue Growth (Constant Currency) | >15% YoY | As the highest growth and a high-margin region, Asia is the engine of the investment thesis. Deceleration below this level would signal a potential stall in the primary profit driver. |
| Inventory Growth vs. Revenue Growth (Constant Currency) | Inventory growth must not exceed revenue growth for more than one quarter. | While management has justified recent inventory builds, a persistent divergence signals a potential need for future markdowns, which would be the first sign of the Anti-Alpha (consumer pullback) thesis materializing. |
The Mix Shift vs. The Consumer Pullback
BULL VIEW
Asia (+22%) and AUR (+18%) growth are structural drivers of margin expansion, powerful enough to offset any moderate slowdown in the mature North American market.
CORE TENSION
Can margin-accretive international growth and brand elevation outrun a cyclical slowdown in the core, and increasingly fragile, North American consumer market?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The stock's negative reaction to Q3's earnings beat, driven entirely by weaker forward margin guidance, shows the market is now pricing in the bear case.
BEAR VIEW
A declining U.S. savings rate signals an imminent pullback in discretionary spending, forcing a return to promotions that will erase recent margin gains and halt the thesis.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late May 2026 | Q4 FY26 Earnings & FY27 Guidance Watch: Watch for North America comparable store sales growth relative to Q3's +7% and any signs of increased promotional activity to clear inventory. |
May - July 2026 | USTR Section 301 Tariff Ruling Watch: Binary outcome: USTR findings on whether to extend or expand tariffs on apparel from key sourcing countries like Vietnam. |
Early August 2026 | Q1 FY27 Earnings Report Watch: Focus on Asia Revenue Growth. Can it maintain momentum >15% vs the +22% baseline established in Q3 FY26? |
July 2026 | EU Regulatory Compliance Deadlines Watch: Company disclosures in 10-Q/10-K filings regarding specific cost provisions or capex related to ESPR and CSDDD compliance. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Sep 16, 2025 | Investor Day Details: Company provided its long-term financial outlook, expecting mid-single-digit revenue CAGR through FY28. [23] The stock fell 4% on the day as investors were disappointed by the guidance. [30] | Muted (-0.4%) $313.16 -> $312.06 |
Nov 6, 2025 | Q2 FY26 Earnings Details: Reported better-than-expected results, with revenue up 17% to $2.0B and adjusted EPS of $3.79, beating the $3.45 forecast, and raised the full-year outlook. [10, 12] | Muted (-0.6%) $315.23 -> $313.38 |
Jan 15, 2026 | Board of Directors Appointment Details: Ralph Lauren announced the appointment of Cesar Conde, Chairman of NBCUniversal News Group, to its Board of Directors to add global operations and media expertise. [27] | Modest 1.7% gain $361.86 -> $368.14 |
Feb 5, 2026 | Q3 FY26 Earnings & Guidance Details: Revenue grew 12% to $2.41B and EPS hit $6.22, beating estimates. [14] Despite the beat, stock fell on guidance for Q4 margin pressure from higher tariffs. | Fell notably by -4.5% $353.72 -> $337.73 |
Feb 10, 2026 | CEO Stock Sale Details: CEO Patrice Louvet sold 47,000 shares for approximately $16.65 million, reducing his holding by over 35%. The market reaction was positive. | Rose significantly by 2.3% $347.19 -> $355.20 |
Mar 31, 2026 | Short Interest Update Details: Short interest in RL stock increased by 25.5%, reaching 7.8% of the float. Despite this bearish signal, the stock reacted positively in the following session. | Surged +5.3% $326.60 -> $343.99 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock has moderate volatility (2.5x S&P), but near-term fear is spiking. The bearish sentiment, driven by significant forward risks, and a premium valuation warrant extreme caution.
Diversification Alternatives
BIRK
SECTORUnlike RL, BIRK has a simpler, more resilient thesis around a single iconic product, with strong pricing power and high gross margins (~60%) less exposed to fashion cycles.
LULU
SECTORWhile facing its own US slowdown, LULU's stock has already priced-in a turnaround, with zero debt, a high buyback yield, and a clearer catalyst path via international expansion. [24]
Ralph Lauren is transforming from a mature, North America-centric wholesale brand into a higher-growth, digitally-focused, international luxury lifestyle company, driven by a direct-to-consumer (DTC) shift and significant brand elevation.
Filter all news through the lens of the company's brand elevation strategy: is it increasing full-price sell-through, growing average unit retail (AUR), and expanding higher-margin international and DTC channels?
Sustained high-single-digit or better AUR growth; double-digit revenue growth in Asia, particularly China; DTC channel representing over two-thirds of total revenue; operating margin expansion ahead of guidance.
Increases in promotional activity or discounting in North America; a significant slowdown in Chinese consumer spending; decline in AUR, signaling a loss of pricing power; a stall in the shift towards DTC channels.
Quarterly fluctuations in North American wholesale orders (the strategic focus is on reducing this channel's weight); minor shifts in fashion trends (the brand's appeal is timelessness); short-term commodity cost changes like cotton (largely offset by AUR growth).
Repricing Catalyst
The market is re-rating the stock based on the success of the "Next Great Chapter: Accelerate" plan, which has driven a structural shift to higher-margin international and DTC sales. International revenue now comprises the majority of the business (57% in FY2025), up from 45% pre-pandemic, with Asia growing revenue 13% and Europe 16% in Q4 FY2025. This geographic and channel mix shift is the primary driver of sustained margin expansion.
North America
$3.1B TTM (43.7% of Total) · 68.6% MarginWhat It Is
Apparel, accessories, home goods, and fragrances under brands including Polo Ralph Lauren, Ralph Lauren Collection, Ralph Lauren Purple Label, Double RL, and Lauren Ralph Lauren.
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay for brand prestige and timeless American style via 100+ owned stores and e-commerce. Wholesale partners (e.g., major department stores) pay for a premium brand that drives traffic, though this channel is being strategically de-emphasized.
Competition
Europe
$2.2B TTM (31.0% of Total) · 68.6% MarginWhat It Is
Apparel, accessories, home goods, and fragrances under brands including Polo Ralph Lauren, Ralph Lauren Collection, Ralph Lauren Purple Label, Double RL, and Lauren Ralph Lauren.
Who Pays & How
European consumers with strong demand for American luxury brands, paying via a network of retail stores and a growing digital presence. Wholesale partners are also a key channel in this region.
Competition
Asia
$1.7B TTM (23.9% of Total) · 68.6% MarginWhat It Is
Apparel, accessories, home goods, and fragrances under brands including Polo Ralph Lauren, Ralph Lauren Collection, Ralph Lauren Purple Label, Double RL, and Lauren Ralph Lauren.
Who Pays & How
A growing middle and upper class, particularly in China, pays for the brand's association with American luxury and status. The business is primarily direct-to-consumer through stores and digital platforms.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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