Ralph Lauren (RL)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $362.78 | Market Cap: $22.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Ralph Lauren (RL)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $362.78Market Cap: $22.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% | Key risksRL key risks include [1] its high revenue dependence on the U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% |
| Key risksRL key risks include [1] its high revenue dependence on the U.S. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Strong Fiscal Third Quarter 2025 Results and Raised Outlook**
Ralph Lauren reported robust results for its third quarter of fiscal 2025 on February 6, 2025, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced an 11% increase in revenue to $2.1 billion and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $4.82, marking a 16% rise year-over-year. Following this strong performance, Ralph Lauren raised its full-year fiscal 2025 revenue and adjusted operating margin expansion outlook, which led to a substantial 15.45% surge in the stock price immediately after the announcement.
**2. Calendar Year Third Quarter 2025 Performance Exceeded Expectations**
On November 6, 2025, Ralph Lauren again delivered strong financial results for its calendar year third quarter (Q3 CY2025). The company reported revenue of $2.01 billion, exceeding Wall Street's estimates by 6.5%, and an adjusted EPS of $3.79, which beat the consensus by 10%. This performance reflected a 16.5% increase in sales year-over-year.
**3. Positive Analyst Upgrades and Increased Price Targets**
Between September and December 2025, Ralph Lauren received numerous positive endorsements from financial analysts. Several prominent firms, including Jefferies Financial Group, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Needham & Company LLC, Wells Fargo & Company, UBS, and Telsey Advisory, either initiated coverage with "buy" ratings, reiterated "buy" ratings, or raised their price targets for RL. These upgrades indicated strong analyst confidence in the company's strategic direction and future financial performance.
**4. Strategic Growth Plan Update at Investor Day**
Ralph Lauren hosted an Investor Day on September 16, 2025, in New York City. During this event, President and CEO Patrice Louvet and other members of the Enterprise Leadership Team provided an update on the company's strategic growth plan and key initiatives. Such investor meetings are typically held to articulate a positive long-term vision, enhance investor confidence, and can contribute to positive stock sentiment.
**5. Strong Overall Market Performance within the Consumer Discretionary Sector**
As of December 19, 2025, Ralph Lauren was highlighted as the second best-performing consumer discretionary stock in the S&P 500 based on year-to-date performance, demonstrating a significant 60.2% gain. This strong overall sector and individual stock performance throughout the year provided a positive backdrop for continued investor interest and upward stock movement within the specified period.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RL Return | -11% | 17% | -8% | 40% | 63% | 62% | 252% |
| Peers Return | -6% | 12% | -40% | 10% | 10% | 24% | -5% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RL Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 55% | 42% | 50% | 52% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RL Max Drawdown | -47% | -3% | -28% | 0% | -5% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -65% | -8% | -58% | -31% | -33% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TPR, VFC, PVH, FOSL, VRA. See RL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 444 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 339 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,575 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 220.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 611 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to TPR, VFC, PVH, FOSL, VRA
In The Past
Ralph Lauren's stock fell -39.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -39.9% loss requires a 66.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| 03312020 | RL | Ralph Lauren | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 84.3% | -8.7% |
| 12312016 | RL | Ralph Lauren | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.2% | 17.5% | -26.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| 03312020 | RL | Ralph Lauren | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 84.3% | -8.7% |
| 12312016 | RL | Ralph Lauren | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.2% | 17.5% | -26.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ralph Lauren
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 44.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| Rev LTM | 7,389 |
| Op Inc LTM | 562 |
| FCF LTM | 341 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 397 |
| CFO LTM | 479 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 581 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 17.1 |
| P/E | 17.9 |
| P/CFO | 12.6 |
| Total Yield | 2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| D/E | 1.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 17.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 44.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -1.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 27.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 9.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -0.6% | 7.4% | 12.5% |
| 8/7/2025 | -6.5% | -0.3% | 3.0% |
| 5/22/2025 | 1.3% | 1.4% | -1.2% |
| 2/6/2025 | 9.7% | 9.6% | -6.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | 6.6% | 1.3% | 10.9% |
| 8/7/2024 | -3.4% | -1.5% | 5.1% |
| 5/23/2024 | 3.3% | 12.9% | 12.0% |
| 2/8/2024 | 16.8% | 20.8% | 19.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 7.4% | 12.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -2.7% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 16.8% | 20.8% | 19.6% |
| Max Negative | -9.7% | -8.4% | -13.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5222025 | 10-K 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5232024 | 10-K 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5252023 | 10-K 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5242022 | 10-K 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/25/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
