What’s Next For Booking Holdings’ Stock After An Upbeat Q4?
Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG) stock remains up by about 42% since the beginning of 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 which remains up by 28% during the same period. In comparison, peer Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) is up 30% during the same period. See What’s Driving The Stock Rally For Expedia? So, what’s is happening here?
Bookings saw better-than-expected numbers across every operational metric, as well as revenues and profitability in Q4. A larger booking window and growth across all geographies drove the company’s results. Bookings is harnessing AI and technology to enhance efficiency and customer experience. The company is integrating generative AI into its services, including AI-powered trip planning and Priceline’s AI-powered travel assistant, Penny, and upgrading its mobile apps and payment systems to streamline operations and boost engagement. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.
Image by Edeltravel_ from Pixabay
In Q4 2024, the online travel agency’s revenues grew 14% year-over-year (y-o-y) to $5.5 billion, driven by a 17% y-o-y increase in gross bookings to $37.2 billion. Room nights booked increased 13% from the prior-year quarter, rental car days were up 12% y-o-y, and airline tickets booked jumped 52% y-o-y in Q4. Further, BKNG’s adjusted EBITDA was up 26% y-o-y to $1.8 billion, driven by revenue outperformance and lower-than-expected adjusted fixed operating expenses. Also, its earnings per share came in at $41.55, up 30% y-o-y. It should be noted that the growth in Booking’s per-share earnings in Q4 was aided by stock buybacks, which reduced the share count by about 5%. Booking Holdings’ alternative accommodations segment demonstrated steady growth in Q4, with listings reaching 7.9 million, representing an 8% y-o-y increase..
- How Might Booking Stock React To Upcoming Earnings?
- What’s Happening With Booking Holdings’ Stock?
- With The Stock Up 5% This Year, Will Q2 Results Drive Booking Stock Higher?
- With The Stock Flat This Year, Will Q1 Results Drive Booking Holdings’ Stock Higher?
- What To Expect From Booking Holdings’ Q4 After Stock Up A Strong 84% Since 2023?
- Up 36% This Year, Will Booking Holdings’ Stock Rally Further Following Q3 Results?
We forecast Booking Holdings’ revenues to be $26.2 billion for the fiscal year 2025, up 10% y-o-y. Looking at the bottom line, we now forecast EPS at $209.17. Given the changes to our revenues and earnings forecast, we have revised our Booking Holdings’ Valuation to about $5227 per share, based on $209.17 expected EPS and a 25.0x P/E multiple for the fiscal year 2025 – almost in line with the current market price. Booking’s board has approved a new $20 billion stock buyback program last month, supplementing the existing $7.7 billion remaining from a $24 billion program authorized in Q1 2023. Furthermore, a 10% quarterly dividend increase to $9.60 per share has been planned for March 31.
The increase in BKNG stock over the last 4-year period has been far from consistent, with annual returns being considerably more volatile than the S&P 500. Returns for the stock were 8% in 2021, -16% in 2022, 76% in 2023, and 41% in 2024. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, is considerably less volatile. And it has comfortably outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Booking has provided its growth outlook, anticipating a 2-4% y-o-y increase in revenue for the first quarter of 2025, alongside a 5-7% rise in gross bookings. Looking ahead to the full year, the company expects to sustain this momentum, with revenue and gross bookings projected to grow in the mid-single-digit percentage range. Additionally, adjusted EPS is forecasted to increase in the low double-digit percentage range.
It is also helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out how Booking Holdings’ Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
| Returns | Feb 2025 MTD [1] |
Since start of 2024 [1] |
2017-25 Total [2] |
| BKNG Return | 5% | 42% | 243% |
| S&P 500 Return | 1% | 28% | 173% |
| Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio | N/A% | N/A% | N/A% |
[1] Returns as of 2/23/2025
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates