Why Is Wheaton Stock Up 60%?

Wheaton Precious Metals stock (NYSE:WPM) has risen over 60% in the last one year, compared to the S&P500 index which has grown by only 9%. This is higher growth compared to its peers, including Barrick Gold stock (NYSE: GOLD) which has risen 19%, Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) which has grown by 34% during the same period. 

Wheaton stock has risen considerably over the last year primarily due to higher precious metals prices. Gold and silver prices rose in 2024, driven by easing inflation, geopolitical tensions (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict), and uncertain U.S. Federal Reserve policies. Wheaton expanded its production capabilities with new streaming deals, such as the Fenix and Kone projects. It also benefited from stronger-than-expected gold grades at its existing operations. Wheaton raised its quarterly dividend for 2025, reflecting confidence in sustained profitability. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

Image by Steve Bidmead from Pixabay

Factors that drove changes in Wheaton’s stock over the last year

Some of the increase of the last year is justified by the 26% yearly rise in revenue in 2024 to $1.3 billion, and the maintenance of a high gross profit margin. The company generated record quarterly operating cash flows of $1.028 billion. 

While Wheaton has seen significant revenue growth in 2024, its PS multiple has also increased from 22x in 2023 to 28x currently. This reflects strong stock performance over the past year, likely driven by higher metal prices, increased revenue, or improved market sentiment toward precious metals streaming companies​.

The increase in WPM stock over the last 4-year period has been far from consistent, although annual returns were less volatile than the S&P 500. Returns for the stock were 4% in 2021, -8% in 2022, 28% in 2023, and 15% in 2024. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, is less volatile. And it has comfortably outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period.

Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment around rate cuts and multiple wars, could WPM face a similar situation as it did in 2021 and 2024 and underperform the S&P over the next 12 months – or will it see a strong jump?

What to expect from Wheaton’s stock

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) had a strong Q4 2024, reporting record revenue and solid earnings growth. The company reported revenues of $381 million for Q4 2024, which represented strong growth year-over-year. Adjusted EPS was $0.44. Going forward, Wheaton forecasts annual production to grow by 40% to 870,000 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) by 2029, with 2025 production expected in the 600,000 to 670,000 GEOs range.  Overall, WPM’s strategic growth initiatives, favorable market conditions, and strong operational performance have contributed to its stock’s impressive rise over the past year. We estimate Wheaton Precious Metals valuation at $77 per share, in line with the current market price.

[1] Returns as of 3/27/2025
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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