After Consistently Underperforming The S&P, Verisign Stock Looks Set To Bounce Back

Verisign Inc. stock (NASDAQ: VRSN) is down almost 2% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was down a marginal 1% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has lost 0.4% and 2.5% respectively, underperforming the broader markets on both occasions. Verisign’s most recent FY ’21 earnings saw revenue rise to $1.33 billion, up from $1.27 billion in FY ’20. Additionally, a slightly slower rise in COGS and operating expenses, saw operating margins rise marginally from 65.2% to 65.3%. However, a higher operating loss and a lower income tax benefit weighed down net income, and EPS dropped from $7.08 to $7.01 over this period, despite being supported by a drop in the outstanding share count.

Now, is VRSN stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is a decent 63% chance of a rise in VRSN stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on VRSN Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Verisign (VRSN) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about VRSN revenue and comparison to peers, see Verisign (VRSN) Revenue Comparison.

Twenty-One Day: VRSN -1.6%, vs. S&P500 -1.3%; Underperformed market

(26% likelihood event; 63% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• VRSN stock dropped 1.6% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) marginal drop of 1.3%
• A change of -1.6% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 26% likelihood event, which has occurred 650 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 650 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 408 occasions
• This points to a 63% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: VRSN -2.5%, vs. S&P500 -0.6%; Underperformed market

(24% likelihood event; 60% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• VRSN stock lost 2.5% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.6%
• A change of -2.5% or more over ten trading days is a 24% likelihood event, which has occurred 596 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 596 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 356 occasions
• This points to a 60% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: VRSN -0.4%, vs. S&P500 0.1%; Underperformed market

(43% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next five days)

• VRSN stock lost 0.4% over a five-day trading period ending 4/20/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was roughly unchanged over this period.
• A change of -0.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 43% likelihood event, which has occurred 1093 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 1093 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 596 occasions
• This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/21/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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