Can Verisign Stock Continue Beating The Market?

Verisign Inc. stock (NASDAQ: VRSN) is up almost 5% in the past two weeks (ten trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was roughly unchanged over this period. If you look at the change over the last five days, too, the stock has returned 1.9%, outperforming the broader markets. Verisign’s recent FY ’21 earnings, saw revenue rising from $1.27 billion in FY ’20 to $1.33 billion in FY ’21. With COGS and other operating expenses in check, operating margins came in steady at around 65%. However, a rise in non-operating expenses and a drop in the tax benefit saw net income pull back slightly and EPS came in at $7.01 in FY ’21, down marginally from $7.08. Despite this mixed FY ’21 performance and the recent volatility in the broader markets, the stock has managed to outperform the S&P.

Now, is VRSN stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a decent 62% chance of a rise in VRSN stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on VRSN Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Verisign (VRSN) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about VRSN revenue and comparison to peers, see Verisign (VRSN) Revenue Comparison.

Twenty-One Day: VRSN -0.3%, vs. S&P500 -3.2%; Outperformed market

(36% likelihood event; 62% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• VRSN stock lost a marginal -0.3% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of -3.2%
• A change of -0.3% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 36% likelihood event, which has occurred 910 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 910 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 567 occasions
• This points to a 62% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: VRSN 4.6%, vs. S&P500 -0.5%; Outperformed market

(15% likelihood event; 64% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• VRSN stock gained 4.6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.5%
• A change of 4.6% or more over ten trading days is a 15% likelihood event, which has occurred 371 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
• Of these 371 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 239 occasions
• This points to a 64% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: VRSN 1.9%, vs. S&P500 -1%; Outperformed market

(27% likelihood event; 60% probability of rise over next five days)

• VRSN stock rose 1.9% over a five-day trading period ending 3/4/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down around 1% over this period.
• A change of 1.9% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 27% likelihood event, which has occurred 687 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
• Of these 687 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 411 occasions
• This points to a 60% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/7/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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