Lower Viacom Share of DVDs Sold in US
Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Viacom’s (NYSE:VIA) stock over the last week: (1) US DVD Pricing and (2) US DVD Market Share. These forecasts suggest that US DVD Pricing will trend in-line, while US DVD Market Share will trend slightly below the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis. These projections imply a small downside to Viacom’s stock.
Viacom sells DVDs under the Paramount Pictures brand. It competes with studios owned by media conglomerates like Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) and News Corp (NASDAQ:NWS). We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $36.65 for Viacom’s stock, slightly below with the current market price of $37.31.
Viacom’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) US DVD Pricing and (2) US DVD Market Share. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
The average of Trefis member forecasts for US DVD Pricing created by indicated a projected increase from $23 in 2010 to $26 2016, in line with the baseline Trefis estimates over the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a small downside to the Trefis price estimate for Viacom’s stock. In the past, US DVD Pricing has increased from around $20 in 2004 to $22.50 in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Viacom’s stock to US DVD Pricing.
Our complete analysis for US DVD Pricing is here.
The average of Trefis member forecasts for US DVD Market Share indicate an increase from 7.5% in 2010 to 7.6% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 7.8% in 2010 to 8.1% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply a downside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for Viacom’s stock. In the past, US DVD Market Share has increased from 5% in 2005 to close to 9% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of Viacom’s stock to US DVD Market Share.