Why VALE Bucked Industry Downtrend With A Double-Digit Rise In Stock?

Vale stock (NYSE: VALE) has jumped 11% in the last one month, completely outperforming the S&P 500 which declined more than 7% during this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, VALE stock is up (1.8% and 1.3%, respectively) and outperformed the broader market on both the occasions. The rise in the stock was despite most of the iron ore and steel company stocks declining rapidly over recent weeks. There are a couple of factors which made Vale an exception to this trend. Vale is looking to move away from coal to focus on growing its base metals unit. In December 2021, the mining company sold its coal assets to Vulcan Materials for $270 million. Thus, the company is freeing up cash and reducing debt to prioritize enhanced shareholder returns.

Now, is VALE stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 53% chance of a rise in VALE stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on VALE Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: VALE 11%, vs. S&P500 -7.2%; Outperformed market

(19% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• VALE stock increased 11% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 7.2%
• A change of 11% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 19% likelihood event, which has occurred 468 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 468 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 249 occasions
• This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: VALE 1.3%, vs. S&P500 -4.9%; Outperformed market

(43% likelihood event; 47% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• VALE stock increased 1.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 4.9%
• A change of 1.3% or more over ten trading days is a 43% likelihood event, which has occurred 1088 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
• Of these 1088 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 513 occasions
• This points to a 47% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: VALE 1.8%, vs. S&P500 0.5%; Outperformed market

(34% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next five days)

• VALE stock increased 1.8% over a five-day trading period till 01/31/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.5%
• A change of 1.8% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 34% likelihood event, which has occurred 863 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
• Of these 863 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 419 occasions
• This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/30/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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