Unilever Stock Seems Poised For A Jump

Unilever stock (NYSE: UL) is down around 6% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), still performing better than the S&P 500, which was down 11% over this period. Additionally, if you look at the change over the last five and ten days, Unilever stock has dropped roughly in line with the broader markets. Unilever’s most recent 1H ’22 earnings saw an 8.1% growth in underlying sales. This was primarily driven by a 9.8% growth in underlying price, which offset a 1.6% drop in underlying volume. Growth in home care revenues was the key driver of sales growth, witnessing 10.7% underlying sales growth. Despite this, rising costs hurt margins, with operating margins dropping from 17.2% in 1H ’21 to 15.2% in 1H ’22. This led to a drop in net margins and EPS came in lower at $1.11, down from $1.16 in 1H ’21.

Now, is UL stock set to pull back after the strong monthly drop? We believe that there is a strong 67% chance of a rise in UL stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on UL Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Unilever (UL) Stock Return. 

Twenty-One Day: UL -6%, vs. S&P500 -11%; Outperformed market

(8% likelihood event; 67% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• UL stock lost 6% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 11%
• A change of -6% or more over twenty-one trading days is an 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 196 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 196 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 131 occasions
• This points to a 67% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: UL -1.3%, vs. S&P500 -1.2%; Underperformed market

(35% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• UL stock lost 1.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.2%
• A change of -1.3% or more over ten trading days is a 35% likelihood event, which has occurred 872 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 872 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 498 occasions
• This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: UL -2%, vs. S&P500 -1.8%; Underperformed market

(17% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next five days)

• UL stock lost 2% over a five-day trading period ending 10/10/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 1.8% over this period.
• A change of -2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 17% likelihood event, which has occurred 427 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 427 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 249 occasions
• This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 10/11/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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