Can Unilever Stock Maintain Its Outperformance?

Unilever stock (NYSE: UL) was up around 1% in the past two weeks (ten trading days), in a time when the S&P dropped nearly 10%. If you look at the change over the last five days and one month, too, the stock has dropped but has managed to outperform the broader markets. Unilever’s recent Q1 ’22 trading statement, saw operating sales rising from $12.9 billion in Q1 ’21 to $14.4 billion in Q1 ’22. The sales growth of 7.3% was driven by a price rise of 8.3% against a drop in volume of 1%. The home care segment was the fastest growing, adding 9.2% in sales growth over this period, bringing in a strong quarterly performance for Unilever.

Now, is UL stock set to continue its strong performance or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a strong 61% chance of a rise in UL stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on UL Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical revenues and our valuation, see Unilever Valuation: Is UL Stock Expensive Or Cheap?.

Twenty-One Day: UL -2%, vs. S&P500 -4.4%; Outperformed market

(28% likelihood event; 61% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• UL stock lost 2% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 4.4%.
• A change of -2% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 28% likelihood event, which has occurred 696 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 696 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 428 occasions
• This points to a 61% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: UL 0.7%, vs. S&P500 -9.7%; Outperformed market

(41% likelihood event; 46% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• UL stock gained a marginal 0.7% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) fall of 9.7%
• A change of 0.7% or more over ten trading days is an 41% likelihood event, which has occurred 1021 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 1021 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 469 occasions
• This points to a 46% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: UL -5.2%, vs. S&P500 -9%; Outperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 60% probability of rise over next five days)

• UL stock fell 5.2% over a five-day trading period ending 6/13/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down a strong 9% over this period.
• A change of -5.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 84 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 84 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 50 occasions
• This points to a 60% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 6/14/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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