Can Unilever Stock Build On Recent Gains?

Unilever stock (NYSE: UL) is up more than 5% in just one month (21 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just a little over 4%. If you look at the change over the last five days, too, the stock has returned 1.5%, beating the market which was roughly unchanged. Unilever had reported steady growth in its Q3 ’21 trading statement published late October, with revenue rising from $14.6 billion in Q3 ’20 to $15.2 billion in Q3 ’21, helped largely by a rise in beauty and personal care revenue. Most of the sales growth came from a rise in selling prices, which outweighed a marginal drop in sales volume across markets. This strong sales growth, combined with strong expectations for FY ’21 earnings, has helped the stock outperform the broader markets over the past month.

Now, is Unilever stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a decent 53% chance of a rise in Unilever stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on UL Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the sources of Unilever’s sales, see Unilever Revenues: How Does UL Make Money?

Twenty-One Day: UL 5.1%, vs. S&P500 4.4%; Outperformed market

(14% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• UL stock rose 5.1% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.4%
• A change of 5.1% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 14% likelihood event, which has occurred 342 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 342 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 181 occasions
• This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: UL 2.6%, vs. S&P500 3.9%; Underperformed market

(18% likelihood event; 44% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• UL stock rose 2.6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.9%
• A change of 2.6% or more over ten trading days is an 18% likelihood event, which has occurred 446 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 446 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 196 occasions
• This points to a 44% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: UL 1.5%, vs. S&P500 0.09%; Outperformed market

(19% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next five days)

• UL stock rose 1.5% over a five-day trading period ending 1/3/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) marginal rise of 0.09%
• A change of 1.5% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 19% likelihood event, which has occurred 479 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 479 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 246 occasions
• This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/4/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

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