How Will UFPI Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
UFP Industries (NASDAQ:UFPI) is set to report its earnings on Monday, April 28, 2025. The consensus forecast is for earnings to range between $1.50 and 1.60 per share, while revenues are estimated to range between $6.45 to $6.65 billion. The company has demonstrated consistent profitability over the years. In December 2024, UFP Industries acquired C&L Wood Products, Inc., expanding its geographic footprint. The company announced plans for up to $1 billion in capital investments through 2028, focusing on automation, technology upgrades, and capacity expansion.
The company has $6.2 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.7 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $498 Mil in operating profits and net income of $415 Mil. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
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UFP Industries’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 5.7%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -2.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
UFPI observed 1D, 5D, and 21D returns post earnings
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
UFPI Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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