United Airlines Holdings Stock Looks Set For A Come Back

United Airlines Holdings Inc. stock (NASDAQ: UAL) is down 6.1% in the past week, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 which was down 1.8% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days, too, the stock has returned -12%, performing much worse than the broader markets. United’s most recent Q2 ’22 earnings report, saw revenue rising from $5.47 billion in Q2 ’21 to $12.1 billion in Q2 ’22, driven primarily by a $6.5 billion rise in sales from the passenger segment. Rising fuel expenses saw operating costs nearly double over this period, but the company still reported operating income of $878 million, up strongly from an operating loss of $270 million for Q2 ’21. Despite a rise in the effective tax rate, the company’s net earnings rose, and EPS came in higher at $1.01, compared to -$1.34 in Q2 ’21.

Now, is United Airlines stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is a strong 67% chance of a rise in UAL stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on UAL Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see United Airlines Holdings (UAL) Stock Return. 

Twenty-One Day: UAL -5.8%, vs. S&P500 -8%; Outperformed market

(25% likelihood event; 67% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• UAL stock lost 5.8% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 8%
• A change of -5.8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 25% likelihood event, which has occurred 623 times out of 2514 in the last 10 years
• Of these 623 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 415 occasions
• This points to a 67% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: UAL -12%, vs. S&P500 -6.1%; Underperformed market

(5% likelihood event; 46% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• UAL stock lost 12% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 6.1%
• A change of -12% or more over ten trading days is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 138 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 138 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 63 occasions
• This points to a 46% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: UAL -6.1%, vs. S&P500 -1.8%; Outperformed market

(12% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next five days)

• UAL stock lost 6.1% over a five-day trading period ending 9/28/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 1.8% over this period.
• A change of -6.1% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 12% likelihood event, which has occurred 300 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 300 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 172 occasions
• This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/29/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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