Down 13% Last Week, Can United Airlines Holdings Stock Bounce Back?

United Airlines Holdings stock (NASDAQ: UAL) is down 13% in the past week (five trading days), performing worse than the S&P 500 which was up 1.6% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, too, the stock has returned -3.9% and -2.1%, performing much worse than the broader markets. UAL’s most recent Q2 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $5.47 billion in Q2 ’21 to $12.1 billion in Q2 ’22. Additionally, despite a more than 3x rise in aircraft fuel expense, the company reported an operating income of $878 million as opposed to an operating loss of $270 million. This helped boost the company’s net income and EPS came in higher at $1.01, compared to -$1.34 in Q2 ’21. Despite this, current economic conditions and rising commodity costs have pulled down the company’s stock over the past week.

Now, is UAL stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a strong 64% chance of a rise in UAL stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on UAL Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see United Airlines Holdings (UAL) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about UAL revenue and comparison to peers, see United Airlines Holdings (UAL) Revenue Comparison.

Twenty-One Day: UAL -2.1%, vs. S&P500 3.2%; Underperformed market

(37% likelihood event; 64% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• UAL stock lost 2.1% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.2%
• A change of -2.1% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 37% likelihood event, which has occurred 923 times out of 2513 in the last 10 years
• Of these 923 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 587 occasions
• This points to a 64% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: UAL -3.9%, vs. S&P500 5.9%; Underperformed market

(26% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• UAL stock dropped 3.9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 5.9%
• A change of -3.9% or more over ten trading days is a 26% likelihood event, which has occurred 650 times out of 2514 in the last 10 years
• Of these 650 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 356 occasions
• This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: UAL -13%, vs. S&P500 1.6%; Underperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next five days)

• UAL stock shed 13% over a five-day trading period ending 7/27/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up 1.6% over this period.
• A change of -13% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 62 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 62 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 32 occasions
• This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/28/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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