Will United Airlines Stock Rise After Recent Correction?

The shares of United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL) have observed a correction in recent weeks largely from sustained high fuel prices despite strong domestic travel demand. Per the short-term energy outlook by EIA, benchmark oil prices are likely to trend downward during the latter half of the year, but uncertainty remains. Thus, United Airlines’ bottom line is expected to observe a dent from high fuel prices for a couple of quarters. Notably, the company does not enter into financial transactions to safeguard against oil price volatility. Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyses historical stock price movements, UAL stock has a just 41% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis United Airlines Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Five Days: UAL -6.8%, vs. S&P 500 -3.7%; Underperformed market (9% event probability)

• UAL stock declined 6.8% over a five-day trading period ending 04/12/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 3.7% over the same period.
• Returns of -6.8% or lower over a five-day period on 234 occasions out of 2516 (9%); Stock rose in the next five days in 121 of these 234 instances (52%).

Ten Days: UAL -3.3%, vs. S&P 500 -3.5%; Outperformed market (30% event probability)

• UAL stock declined 3.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 3.5%.
• Returns of -3.3% or lower over a 10-day period on 756 occasions out of 2516 (30%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 416 of these 756 instances (55%)

Twenty-One Days: UAL 22%, vs. S&P 500 4.8%; Outperformed market (4% event probability)

• UAL stock gained 22% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which increased by 4.8%.
• Returns of 22% or higher over 21-day period on 109 occasions out of 2516 (4%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 45 of these 109 instances (41%).

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/12/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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