Twitter Stock Gained 9% In One Week, Where Is It Headed?

Twitter’s stock (NYSE: TWTR) has gained 9.2% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (up 2.6%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (2.8% vs -3.1%). 

The company posted weak results in the second quarter, with both the revenues and earnings missing the consensus estimates. While revenues suffered due to headwinds in the digital advertising space, the average monetizable daily active usage (mDAU) still increased 17% y-o-y in the quarter. The street expects the firm to post growth in the third quarter, both sequentially and on a year-on-year basis. The consensus estimates of Q3 revenues and earnings are $1.3 billion and $0.02 respectively. In addition to this, last week a Delaware court denied Elon Musk’s request to delay the trial proceedings, which is scheduled to start on October 17. Notably, Twitter filed a lawsuit against Mr. Musk in July over his attempt to terminate the merger deal. The above factors were mainly responsible for the recent stock movement.

Now, is TWTR stock set to rise further, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 51% chance of a rise in TWTR stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last nine years. See our analysis on Twitter’s Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: TWTR -5%, vs. S&P500 -3.2%; Underperformed market

(35% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• Twitter stock lost 5% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decrease of 3.2%
• A change of -5% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 35% likelihood event, which has occurred 779 times out of 2200 in the last nine years
• Of these 779 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 401 occasions
• This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: TWTR 2.8%, vs. S&P500 -3.1%; Outperformed market

(38% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• Twitter stock increased 2.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) loss of 3.1%
• A change of 2.8% or more over ten trading days is a 38% likelihood event, which has occurred 850 times out of 2211 in the last nine years
• Of these 850 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 423 occasions
• This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: TWTR 9.2%, vs. S&P500 2.6%; Outperformed market

(10% likelihood event; 48% probability of rise over next five days)

• Twitter stock gained 9.2% over a five-day trading period ending 09/09/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) increase of 2.6%
• A change of 9.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 10% likelihood event, which has occurred 218 times out of 2216 in the last nine years
• Of these 218 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 104 occasions
• This points to a 48% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/12/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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