Tripadvisor’s Stock Down 22% In Last Month. Can it Rebound?

Tripadvisor’s stock (NASDAQ: TRIP), an online travel company providing booking for hotel reservations, transportation, lodging, and travel experiences, has declined by 22% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands at around $19. The company’s stock traded lower as anxiety over a recession and higher interest rates have swept over the entire travel sector. The broader concern over the global economy’s health and renewed Covid restrictions in some regions of China continue to negatively impact TRIP stock. It is worth mentioning that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) slashed its global growth forecast to 3% this year, down from its previous estimate of 4.5%.

Tripadvisor saw a mixed Q1 last month, with revenues beating, but earnings missing estimates marginally. The company managed to double its revenues year-over-year (y-o-y) to $262 million, driven by a recovery in the tourism sector in Q1. Of its two business segments, experiences and dining saw a large improvement, with its revenues rising by almost 230% y-o-y to $92 million. Hotels, media, and platform revenues grew 82% y-o-y. Although the company didn’t quite climb into profitability, it managed to narrow its bottom-line loss per share from -$0.59 to -$0.24.

Now, is TRIP stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is an 82% chance of a rise in TRIP stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on TRIP’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last ten years’ data

[1] Returns of -1.3% or lower over a 5-day period on 1044 occasions out of 2515 (42%); Stock rose in the next five days in 532 of these 1044 instances (51%)

[2] Returns of -22% or lower over a 10-day period on 41 occasions out of 2515 (2%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 24 of these 41 instances (59%)

[3] Returns of -22% or lower over a 21-day period on 84 occasions out of 2514 (3%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 69 of these 84 instances (82%)