Will The Declines Continue For Tapestry Stock?

Tapestry’s stock (NYSE: TPR), a luxury goods retailer of handbags, shoes, and accessories under the Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman brands, has declined around 2% over the last ten trading days (two weeks) and currently stands at roughly $43. It should be noted that the broader S&P500 returned a 3% growth during the same period. Despite better-than-expected fiscal-third-quarter earnings and upbeat sales guidance, investors have been discounting the TPR stock. It should be noted that the retailer’s stock is already up 30% year to date and has gained almost 3.3x in the last twelve months.

Now, is TPR stock poised to decline further? We believe the company remains fundamentally overvalued and there could be room for declines in the stock going forward. Specifically, there is a 53% chance of a fall for Tapestry stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on TPR Stock Chances of Fall for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last 10 year data

[1] -0.3% or higher return during five-day period in 1217 times out of 2517; Stock rose in the next 5 days in 654 of these 1217 instances

[2] -2.2% or higher return during ten-day period in 819 times out of 2516; Stock rose in the next 10 days in 438 of these 819 instances

[3] -0.4% or higher return during twenty-one-day period in 1139 times out of 2516; Stock rose in the next 21 days in 530 of these 1139 instances

E-commerce is eating into retail sales, but this might be an investment opportunity. See our theme on E-commerce Stocks for a diverse list of companies that stand to benefit from the big shift.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

What’s behind Trefis? See How It’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For CFOs and Finance Teams | Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams