A Closer Look At Target’s Disappointing Q4 Outlook
Target (NYSE: TGT) announced solid third quarter results on November 15, as both its revenue and earnings per share (EPS) came in ahead of market expectations. However, the company’s stock fell by almost 10% in trading due to a disappointing outlook for the holiday season. Below we discuss some key takeaways from Target’s earnings report and Q4 outlook using our interactive platform:
Target continued to beat market expectations for the third straight quarter. In Q3, the company’s revenue increased 1% year-over-year (y-o-y) to $16.7 billion, primarily due to a 0.9% growth in comparable sales, which was ahead of consensus estimates. Target also posted adjusted earnings of 91 cents per share, which was down 13% y-o-y, but was in the upper range of its own guidance.
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Target’s gross margin was 29.7%, down 10 basis points in this quarter. This slip was due to increased fulfillment costs resulting from the growth in the company’s digital sales. On the cost side, selling and general administrative (SG&A) expenses grew 5% y-o-y, due to an increase in compensation expense, reflecting investments in store hours, wage rates and team member incentives. Factors such as higher employee wages, free delivery, and promotional activity continue to be a drag on Target’s bottom line. We expect the same factors to impact the company’s next quarter earnings as well.
Additionally, Target’s stock declined about 9% despite the stronger-than-expected Q3 results, due to disappointing profit guidance for the critical holiday quarter. In fact, the company’s stock is down more than 35% this year, as it is looking to overhaul its business model. The retailer plans to invest close to $2 billion this year during this phase, which includes the expansion of small-format stores, revamping existing stores, supply chain improvements, increased promotions (estimated investment of $7 billion over the next 3 years), and lower everyday pricing. Given that the company is able to grow its comparable sales, suggests that the before-mentioned initiatives are resonating well with the customers.
Digital Sales, Traffic Boost Comparable Sales
Among the components of the reported 0.9% comparable sales in Q3, the traffic grew 1.4 % y-o-y while the average transaction amount declined 0.5% y-o-y. The company’s store comparable sales were flat in this quarter, and almost all of the company’s growth came from its digital sales. Notably, Target’s digital sales grew 24% y-o-y in the third quarter, which accounted for 4.3% of its total sales.
Future Outlook
In the fourth quarter, the company expects to generate both GAAP EPS from continuing operations and adjusted EPS in the range of $1.05 to $1.25, compared to a consensus estimate of $1.24. The company also expects to see continued pressure on its EBIT due to ongoing investments in both digital and physical stores. For the full year 2017, Target expects its adjusted EPS to range between $4.40 to $4.60.
Our $59 price estimate for Target’s stock is around 8% ahead of the current market price.
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