Can Sabre’s Stock Rise After A 10% Fall Last Week?

October 11th, 2021 by Trefis Team
SABR: Sabre logo
SABR
Sabre

Sabre Corporation’s stock (NASDAQ: SABR), is a travel technology company and the largest distribution systems provider for air bookings in North America, has fallen by 10.5% in the last week. But will the company’s stock continue to decline over the coming weeks, or is a rise in the stock imminent? Based on trends in the company’s stock price over the last seven years, the Trefis Machine Learning Engine finds that average returns for SABR stock to be around 1.4% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 10.5% decline in a week (five trading days).

According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, Sabre’s stock price forecast for a month from now is around $11.40 – up 1.4% from its current market price of roughly $11.24. But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding Sabre’s stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the interactive dashboard. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!

And if you are considering Sabre’s stock as an investment option over a larger time frame, you can explore our forecast for Sabre valuation.

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MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

IF SABR stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, SABR stock moves an average of 4.9% with a 58% probability of a positive return over this period.

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Sabre Stock Movements:

Question 1: Is the price forecast for Sabre stock higher after a drop?

Answer:

Consider two situations,

Case 1: Sabre stock drops by -5% or more in a week

Case 2: Sabre stock rises by 5% or more in a week

 Is the price forecast for Sabre stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

SABR stock fares better after Case 1, with an expected return of 4.9% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an expected return of 2.9% for Case 2. This implies a price forecast of $11.79 in Case 1 and a figure of $11.57 in Case 2 using SABR market price of $11.24 on 10/11/2021.

 In comparison, the S&P 500 has an expected return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an expected return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the expected return for the S&P 500 after a rise or drop.

 Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how the forecast for Sabre stock is likely to change after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?

Answer:

If you buy and hold Sabre stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks! 

 For SABR stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Sabre after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.

Question 3: What about the stock price forecast after a rise if you wait for a while?

Answer:

The expected return after a rise is understandably lower than after a drop as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although SABR stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.

SABR’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Sabre stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.

While Sabre stock is likely to move higher in the near term, there are several peers in its sector that look like a Better Bet Than SABR stock. Also, Sabre Peer Comparisons summarizes how the company fares against peers on metrics that matter.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since 2016.

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