How SentinelOne Stock Might React To Upcoming Earnings?

SentinelOne (NYSE: S), a cybersecurity platform that protects against malware, spyware, and other cyber threats, is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, March 12, 2025. The consensus projection anticipates a loss of $0.21 per share on revenues of $222 million, demonstrating a year-over-year sales growth of 28% and a $0.03 decrease in the loss per share. Growth is likely to be driven by the company’s Purple AI – its advanced Generative AI security analyst – which enhances enterprise security.

The company has $6.3 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $770 Mil, and it was operationally loss-making, with $-328 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-290 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader. There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. However, if you want an upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like SentinelOne, consider the High-Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

See the earnings reaction history of all stocks

SentinelOne’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 13 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 4 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 31% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 4 positive returns = 8.5%, and median of the 9 negative returns =-5.9%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

S observed 1D, 5D, and 21D returns post earnings

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

S Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of SentinelOne stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before SentinelOne. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

S Correlation With Peer Earnings

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[1] Returns as of 3/11/2025
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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