Rio Tinto Stock Strengthens – Here’s Why

Rio Tinto stock (NYSE: RIO) is up more than 4% in just the last one week, outperforming the S&P 500 which was down 0.3% during this period. If you look at the change in stock over the last ten days and one month, RIO stock has increased (13% and 17%, respectively) and outperformed the broader market on both the occasions. The recent rise in stock was driven by an uptick in iron ore prices. Iron ore price per ton has increased from $112 to $126, reflecting a rise of 12.5% in a month. Additionally, Goldman Sachs has given a buy rating for RIO stock, stating that Rio Tinto will return to production growth in mid-2022 with higher iron ore and copper volumes. This has improved investor sentiment regarding the stock.

Now, is RIO stock set to rise further or could we expect some pullback? We believe that there is a 44% chance of a rise in RIO stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Rio Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about RIO’s business, see our analysis on Rio Tinto Revenues.

Twenty-One Day: RIO 17%, vs. S&P500 -1.2%; Outperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 44% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• RIO stock increased 17% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.2%
• A change of 17% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 110 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 110 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 48 occasions
• This points to a 44% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: RIO 13%, vs. S&P500 -2.1%; Outperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 45% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• RIO stock increased 13% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.1%
• A change of 13% or more over ten trading days is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 66 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
• Of these 66 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 30 occasions
• This points to a 45% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: RIO 4.4%, vs. S&P500 -0.3%; Outperformed market

(18% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next five days)

• RIO stock increased 4.4% over a five-day trading period ending 01/14/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) marginal drop of 0.3%
• A change of 4.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is an 18% likelihood event, which has occurred 461 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
• Of these 461 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 233 occasions
• This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/17/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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