What Led To A 150% Rise In uniQure Stock In A Week?

uniQure stock (NASDAQ: QURE), a gene therapy company, has seen a stellar 150% rise in a week, faring significantly better than its peer – Editas Medicine stock – (NASDAQ:EDIT), up 12%. This massive rise in QURE stock can be attributed to the positive outcome from its phase I-II clinical trials of AMT-130 for Huntington’s disease. A higher dose of the drug resulted in a statistically significant and dose-dependent slowdown in the progression of the disease over a period of two years. ^[1] uniQure will discuss the developments in its clinical trials with the U.S. FDA later this year. If successful in getting the regulatory approvals, AMT-130 has the potential to garner $2 billion in annual peak sales. Earlier this month, uniQure entered into an agreement to sell its global manufacturing facility in Lexington, Massachusetts to Genezen, a contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) for $25 million. This transaction will reduce the company’s cash burn by approximately $40 million annually. ^[2] These developments have boded well for QURE stock.

Looking at a slightly longer term, QURE stock has suffered a sharp decline of 70% from levels of $35 in early January 2021 to around $10 now, vs. an increase of about 50% for the S&P 500 over this roughly three-year period. Some of this decline can be attributed to the interim results of phase I-II trials of AMT-130, showing that high doses of the drug resulted in a 51.5% increase in neurofilament light chain (NfL) protein levels in their cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). This shows signs of deteriorating neurodegenerative disease. However, the recent data showed that patients treated with both high and low doses showed mean CSF NfL levels below baseline at 24 months.

It should be noted that the decrease in QURE stock has been far from consistent. Returns for the stock were -43% in 2021, 9% in 2022, and -70% in 2023. In comparison, returns for the S&P 500 have been 27% in 2021, -19% in 2022, and 24% in 2023 — indicating that QURE underperformed the S&P in 2021 and 2023.

In fact, consistently beating the S&P 500 — in good times and bad — has been difficult over recent years for individual stocks; for heavyweights in the Health Care sector including UNH and JNJ, and even for the megacap stars GOOG, TSLA, and MSFT. In contrast, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has outperformed the S&P 500 each year over the same period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment with high oil prices and elevated interest rates, could QURE face a similar situation as it did in 2021 and 2023 and underperform the S&P over the next 12 months — or will it see a recovery? From a valuation perspective, we think QURE stock will likely see higher levels. The $18 average of analysts price estimates reflects over 75% upside from the current levels of around $10. If successful with its Huntington’s disease treatment, uniQure will likely be an acquisition target going forward.

While QURE stock appears to have ample room for growth, it is helpful to see how uniQure’s Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

[1] Returns as of 7/11/2024
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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1. uniQure’s Press Release, July 9, 2024 [↩]
2. uniQure’s Press Release, July 1, 2024 [↩]