Burger King Expected To Drive Growth For Restaurant Brands International In The Second Quarter

While the shares of Restaurant Brands International (NYSE: QSR) were on a downward spiral for the first three months of the year, they have rebounded post the release of the company’s first quarter earnings. QSR revealed its plan to improve customer experience and sales at its Tim Hortons (TH) segment while announcing largely upbeat Q1 results, which beat consensus expectations on revenue and earnings, with Tim Hortons being the only sore spot. Burger King (BK) posted an impressive comparable sales growth of 3.8%, higher than the 3.5% growth anticipated, which together with the higher BK restaurant count, led to system-wide sales growth of 11%. The company had in the past laid down its list of priorities for FY 2018, which included improving comps for TH, building momentum behind BK, and accelerating restaurant growth for Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (PLK). While it has made good progress on the latter two, any meaningful progress in the former is lacking as of now, however, its plans to revitalize the business should begin to show results in the near future. Consequently, for the second quarter, consensus expectations call for earnings of $0.64 per share on revenues of $1.23 billion, an increase of 25% and 9%, respectively.

We have a $72 price estimate for Restaurant Brands International, which is higher than the current market price. The charts have been made using our new, interactive platform. The various driver assumptions can be modified by clicking here for our interactive dashboard on Restaurant Brands International’s Q2 Expected Performance, to gauge their impact on the earnings and price per share metrics.

Factors That May Impact Future Performance

1. “Winning Together” Plan: RBI detailed this plan during the earnings call webcast, through which it intends to improve the performance of TH and drive franchisee profitability. This plan focuses on “restaurant experience, product excellence, and brand communications” and is intended to stave off the negative press it has been receiving in the wake of the company’s issues with a group of dissident franchise owners. Resolving the issues with TH franchisees is critical for RBI’s future growth. Any growth in this segment in the future can be expected to come from international markets. In 2017, the company opened its first Tim Hortons restaurants in each of Asia, Europe, and Latin America, and has plans for additional openings in 2018.

2. Expansion of Burger King: RBI is focused on expanding its Burger King chain and is entering into several franchisee agreements to fulfill this goal. Recently the company announced a financial agreement with private equity giant Bridgepoint to expand in the U.K. This agreement was followed by a master franchise agreement with Nexus Point in Taiwan and another master franchise agreement to expand its presence in the Netherlands. In Q1, the company grew its restaurant count by roughly 6.9% year-on-year, which reflects continued growth from its partners all around the world. Faster growth of the Burger King Chain can become a key driver of revenues for RBI.

3. Implementing Delivery: RBI began testing delivery for BK in the U.S. in the first quarter across several hundred restaurants and numerous markets. This strategy follows from the successful model seen in many of its international markets, including China and Spain. The company is also testing delivery for PLK in the U.S., and currently has several hundred restaurants in various markets across the country that are participating in the test.

4. Prospects of Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen: Revenue growth from this segment can be expected to come from a higher number of its restaurants. In Q1, the company had a net restaurant growth of nearly 7%. The company has also signed a master franchise agreement for expansion in Brazil, which calls for opening 300 restaurants in the country over the next ten years.

5. Positive Industry Environment: According to insights provided by TDn2K’s Black Box Intelligence, year-over-year chain restaurant sales increased 1.1% in June, making it the fourth consecutive month of positive or flat comp sales. On the other hand, the guest count metric continued to be weak, with store traffic declining 1.7% during the month. For the quarter, same-store sales were up  0.8%, the third consecutive quarterly increase, reflecting a strengthening of the environment in the industry, while traffic was down 2%.

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