Penn National Gaming Stock: Should You Buy The Dip?

February 9th, 2022 by Trefis Team
PENN: PENN Entertainment logo
PENN
PENN Entertainment

The shares of Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ: PENN) observed a deep contraction in Q4 2021 along with its peers, Draft Kings and Flutter Entertainment, due to concerns of high competitive rivalry, the Omicron variant disrupting the NFL league, and a pullback in macroeconomic activity. Per Q4 filings, the market share of Penn’s sports betting application Barstool in Pennsylvania and Michigan was 8.9% and 9.5%, respectively. Notably, Pennsylvania and New Jersey account for 35% of the total sports betting handle since 2018. Is PENN stock likely to gain more in the coming weeks and months or is a decline more likely? Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, PENN stock has a 59% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis Penn National Gaming Stock Chance of Rise for more details. (related: Las Vegas Sands Stock: Ride The Momentum Or Pull Out?)

Five Days: PENN 1.8%, vs. S&P 500 -0.4%; Outperformed market (35% event probability)

  • PENN stock gained 1.8% over a five-day trading period ending 02/08/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 0.4% over the same period.
  • Returns of 1.8% or higher over five-day period on 873 occasions out of 2517 (35%); Stock rose in the next 5 days in 457 of these 873 instances (52%).
Relevant Articles
  1. What’s Next For Gap Stock?
  2. What’s Driving Altria Stock Higher?
  3. What’s Next For HIMS Stock?
  4. Buy, Sell, Or Hold Deere Stock?
  5. Is The Worst Over For Super Micro Stock?
  6. Pick Honeywell Over 3M Stock?

Ten Days: PENN 11%, vs. S&P 500 3.8%; Outperformed market (10% event probability)

  • PENN stock gained 11% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which increased 3.8%.
  • Returns of 11% or higher over 10-day period on 258 occasions out of 2517 (10%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 158 of these 258 instances (61%).

Twenty-One Days: PENN 1.8%, vs. S&P 500 -3.3%; Outperformed market (48% event probability)

  • PENN stock gained 1.8% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which lost 3.3%.
  • Returns of 1.8% or higher over 21-day period on 1214 occasions out of 2516 (48%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 714 of these 1214 instances (59%).

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Feb 2022
MTD [1]		 2022
YTD [1]		 2017-22
Total [2]
 PENN Return 5% -7% 249%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -5% 102%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 0% -9% 258%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/9/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates