What’s Next For Paramount Stock?

Paramount Global stock (NASDAQ: PARA) has gained about 5% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 which decreased by -1.5% over the same period. The stock was also up by about 13% over the past week. Now, Paramount stock has actually seen multiple headwinds off late. The company’s Q3 earnings came in below estimates with adjusted EPS down 49% year-over-year as the company continued to invest in content and marketing for its streaming operations. A tough advertising market and mounting economic headwinds are also expected to weigh on the company’s holiday quarter results. That said, investors are likely seeing more value in  Paramount, considering that the stock is down by over 45% over the last year, with the streaming business actually making pretty good progress. Direct-to-consumer revenue expanded 38% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, with total direct-to-consumer subscribers standing at 67 million. Value investors such as Berkshire Hathaway have also been raising their stake in the company.

However, now that Paramount stock has seen a rise of about 5% over the past month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a sell-off imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a 54% chance of a rise in PARA stock over the next month. There were 714 instances in the last 10 years when Paramount Global (PARA) stock saw a trailing 21-day rise of 4.8% or more. Now 383 of those instances resulted in Paramount stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (21 trading days). This historical pattern reflects 383 out of 714, or about a 54% chance of rise in Paramount Global stock over the next month. See our analysis on  Paramount Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using the last ten years’ data

• After moving 13% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 49% of the occasions.
• After moving 13% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 64% of the occasions
• After moving 5% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 54% of the occasions.

See our analysis on Paramount Global Valuation: Expensive Or Cheap for more details on Paramount’s valuation. We value Paramount stock at about $26 per share, about 40% ahead of the current market price. Check out our analysis of Paramount Global Revenue for a closer look at the company’s business model and key revenue streams.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/7/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates