Nvidia Stock Could Build On Stellar Weekly Returns

Nvidia stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) is up 11% in just one week, completely outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just around 1%. If you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, the stock has returned 20% and 14%, respectively, thus having outperformed the market on both occasions. Last week, Nvidia announced its GeForce NOW RTX 3080 membership, which would allow users to stream over 1,100 games at high video quality and 120 FPS. Further, this week Facebook announced plans to boost spending on data centers, servers, and network infrastructure. This move is expected to strongly benefit Nvidia, whose data center revenues have surged over the past couple of years. To top it all, Piper Sandler placed a $260 price target on Nvidia’s stock, despite recent supply chain concerns. Analysts expect Nvidia to report steady revenue growth, supported by strong expected gaming console sales over the holiday season. The combined impact of these factors helped boost Nvidia’s stock by 11% over the past five trading days.

Now, is NVDA stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a strong 70% chance of a rise in NVDA stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on NVDA Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about Nvidia historical returns and comparison to peers, see Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Return.

Twenty-One Day: NVDA 14%, vs. S&P500 3%; Outperformed market

(16% likelihood event; 70% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• Nvidia stock increased 14% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3%
• A change of 14% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 16% likelihood event, which has occurred 410 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 410 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 285 occasions
• This points to a 70% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: NVDA 20%, vs. S&P500 5.2%; Outperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 61% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• NVDA stock increased 20% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 5.2%
• A change of 20% or more over ten trading days is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 49 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 49 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 30 occasions
• This points to a 61% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: NVDA 11%, vs. S&P500 1.2%; Outperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next five days)

• NVDA stock increased 11% over a five-day trading period ending 10/26/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) marginal rise of 1.2%
• A change of 11% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 88 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 88 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 49 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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