Small Upside to Nvidia from Higher Share in Notebook PC Graphics
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) competes with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and AMD (NYSE:AMD) in the notebook processor market. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $13 for Nvidia‘s stock, about 43% above the current market price of around $9.
Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of Nvidia’s stock over the last week: (1) Discrete Notebook GPU Market Share and (2) Global Notebook Units. The members’ forecasts suggest that Discrete Notebook GPU Market Share will trend slightly above the Trefis estimate, while Global Notebook Units will be roughly in line. These projections indicate a combined upside of around 1% for Nvidia’s stock.
We estimate that Discrete Notebook GPUs account for around 7% of the $13 Trefis price estimate for Nvidia’s stock. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers: (1) Discrete Notebook GPU Market Share and (2) Global Notebook Units.
1. Discrete Notebook GPU Market Share
The average of forecasts for Discrete Notebook GPU Market Share created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from around 73% in 2010 to around 76% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from around 68% in 2010 to around 71% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for Nvidia’s stock. In the past, Discrete Notebook GPU Market Share has increased from around 35% in 2005 to around 67% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of nVIDIA’s stock to Discrete Notebook GPU Market Share.
Our complete analysis for Discrete Notebook GPU Market Share is here.
The average of forecasts for Global Notebook Units created by Trefis members indicated a projected increase from close to 158 million in 2010 to 240 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from around 157 million in 2010 to 238 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply little upside to the Trefis price estimate for Nvidia’s stock. In the past, Global Notebook Units increased from 62 million in 2005 to around 150 million in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of nVIDIA’s stock to Global Notebook Units.