After Strong Outperformance, Can NetApp Stock Maintain Its Streak?

NetApp Inc. stock (NASDAQ: NTAP) is up around 5.1% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was down 1.6% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned 2.6% and 0.4%, performing better than the broader markets on both occasions. NetApp’s most recent Q1 ’23 earnings (NetApp’s fiscal year ends in April), saw revenue rising from $1.46 billion in Q1 ’22 to $1.59 billion in Q1 ’23, driven by a rise in both products and services sales. However, with COGS and other operating expenses rising at a slightly faster rate, the company reported operating income of $255 million, up marginally from $249 million for Q1 ’22. A rise in other income helped boost the company’s net earnings, and EPS came in higher at $0.97, compared to $0.91 in Q1 ’22.

Now, is NetApp stock set to continue its outperformance or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a decent 55% chance of a rise in NTAP stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on NTAP Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see NetApp (NTAP) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about NTAP revenue and comparison to peers, see NetApp (NTAP) Revenue Comparison.

Twenty-One Day: NTAP 5.1%, vs. S&P500 -1.6%; Outperformed market

(32% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• NTAP stock gained 5.1% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.6%
• A change of 5.1% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 32% likelihood event, which has occurred 793 times out of 2514 in the last 10 years
• Of these 793 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 440 occasions
• This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: NTAP 0.4%, vs. S&P500 -5.5%; Outperformed market

(53% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• NTAP stock gained a marginal 0.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 5.5%
• A change of 0.4% or more over ten trading days is a 53% likelihood event, which has occurred 1341 times out of 2514 in the last 10 years
• Of these 1341 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 712 occasions
• This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: NTAP 2.6%, vs. S&P500 -1.9%; Outperformed market

(22% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next five days)

• NTAP stock rose 2.6% over a five-day trading period ending 8/26/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 1.9% over this period.
• A change of 2.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 22% likelihood event, which has occurred 560 times out of 2514 in the last 10 years
• Of these 560 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 308 occasions
• This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/29/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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