Nokia Stock Poised For Recovery After Dismal Week?

Nokia stock (NYSE: NOK) is down 7.2% in the past week (five trading days), performing much worse than the S&P 500, which was down 3.3% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days, too, the stock has performed much worse than the broader markets. Nokia’s most recent Q3 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $5.73 billion in Q3 ’21 to $6.63 billion in Q3 ’22. However, COGS and other operating expenses rose at a faster rate, and EBIT margin dropped from 9.3% to 8.3% over this period. Despite this, net income rose due to a lower tax rate and EPS came in higher at $0.09 in Q3 ’22, against $0.06 in Q3 ’21.

Now, is NOK stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a recovery? We believe that there is a decent 56% chance of a rise in NOK stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on NOK Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Nokia (NOK) Stock Return. 

Twenty-One Day: NOK -1.7%, vs. S&P500 -2.2%; Outperformed market

(38% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• NOK stock lost 1.7% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.2%
• A change of -1.7% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 38% likelihood event, which has occurred 955 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
• Of these 955 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 531 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: NOK -3.9%, vs. S&P500 -1.8%; Underperformed market

(23% likelihood event; 61% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• NOK stock lost 3.9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.8%
• A change of -3.9% or more over ten trading days is a 23% likelihood event, which has occurred 571 times out of 2518 in the last 10 years
• Of these 571 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 348 occasions
• This points to a 61% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: NOK -7.2%, vs. S&P500 -3.3%; Underperformed market

(6% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next five days)

• NOK stock lost 7.2% over a five-day trading period ending 12/20/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 3.3% over this period.
• A change of -7.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 6% likelihood event, which has occurred 147 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
• Of these 147 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 75 occasions
• This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/21/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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