Can Nokia Stock Continue Weathering The Storm In The Broader Markets?

Nokia stock (NYSE: NOK) is down 6.5% in the past month (21 trading days), still outperforming the S&P 500 which was down 12%, almost double that much. If you look at the change over the last five days, too, the stock has gained 3.6%, outperforming the broader markets. Additionally, Nokia’s most recent Q1 ’22 earnings saw revenue rise to $5.66 billion, up from $5.38 billion in Q1 ’21. Despite this, a faster rise in COGS and operating expenses, saw operating margins drop from 8.5% to 6.6% over this period. Due to this, EPS came in lower at $0.04 in Q1 ’22, down from around $0.05 in Q1 ’21.

Now, is Nokia stock set to continue its outperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is an average 59% chance of a rise in Nokia stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Nokia Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s revenues see Nokia Revenues: How Does NOK Make Money?

Twenty-One Day: NOK -6.5%, vs. S&P500 -12%; Outperformed market

(18% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• NOK stock dropped 6.5% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 12%
• A change of -6.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is an 18% likelihood event, which has occurred 452 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 452 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 268 occasions
• This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: NOK -8.8%, vs. S&P500 -8.6%; Underperformed market

(8% likelihood event; 48% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• NOK stock lost 8.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 8.6%
• A change of -8.8% or more over ten trading days is an 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 209 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 209 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 100 occasions
• This points to a 48% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: NOK 3.6%, vs. S&P500 -0.1%; Outperformed market

(18% likelihood event; 47% probability of rise over next five days)

• NOK stock gained 3.6% over a five-day trading period ending 5/18/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was roughly unchanged over this period.
• A change of 3.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is an 18% likelihood event, which has occurred 458 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 458 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 213 occasions
• This points to a 47% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/19/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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