Can Nokia Stock Continue Its Post-Earnings Outperformance?

Nokia stock (NYSE: NOK) is up almost 20% in the past two weeks (10 trading days), massively outperforming the S&P 500 which was up a little less than 6% over this period. Nokia’s most recent FY ’21 earnings saw revenue rise marginally to $24.5 billion from $24.1 billion in FY ’20. Further, a slower rise in COGS and operating expenses saw gross margins rise from 38.9% to 40.4% over this period, and operating margins increased from 9.5% to 12.5%. This boosted net income and saw EPS rise from $0.28 in FY ’20 to $0.41 in FY ’21. The bulk of Nokia’s up move came as a reaction to this stellar earnings growth.

Now, is NOK stock set to continue its outperformance or could we expect a pull back? We believe that there is a decent 56% chance of a rise in NOK stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on NOK Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: NOK -5.8%, vs. S&P500 1.5%; Underperformed market

(21% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• NOK stock lost 5.8% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.5%
• A change of -5.8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 21% likelihood event, which has occurred 534 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 534 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 299 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: NOK 18%, vs. S&P500 5.8%; Outperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 74% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• NOK stock gained 18% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 5.8%
• A change of 18% or more over ten trading days is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 58 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 58 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 43 occasions
• This points to a 74% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: NOK 6.1%, vs. S&P500 6.4%; Underperformed market

(11% likelihood event; 42% probability of rise over next five days)

• NOK stock gained 6.1% over a five-day trading period ending 3/18/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up around 6.4% over this period.
• A change of 6.1% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 11% likelihood event, which has occurred 271 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 271 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 113 occasions
• This points to a 42% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/21/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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