What Will Newmont Stock React To Upcoming Earnings?

Newmont (NYSE:NEM) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, April 23, 2025, after market close. Revenues are likely to come in at about $4.6 billion as per our estimates, while earnings are likely to come in at about $2.86  per share. Newmont’s gold production rose by 9.2% year-over-year to 1.90 million ounces in Q4 2024. This growth, coupled with higher gold prices, is expected to contribute to improved earnings in Q1 2025.

The company has $62 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $19 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $5.9 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.3 Bil. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Newmont’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 5 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 29% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 22% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 5 positive returns = 2.0%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -4.4%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

NEM observed 1D, 5D, and 21D returns post earnings

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

NEM Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Newmont, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.