Here’s How The Recent Slide In Gold Prices Impacted Newmont Stock

Newmont stock (NYSE: NEM) has declined more than 4% in the last one month, underperforming the broader market (S&P 500) which declined less than 1% during the same period. The recent decline in the stock price was driven by a drop in gold prices. Global gold price per ounce has dropped by almost $100 in the last one month, from $1,870/ounce to $1,770/ounce. This was mainly after U.S. President Joe Biden extended Jerome Powell’s tenure for one more term as the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman. Earlier it was anticipated that Biden might pick Lael Brainard as the Fed chair, who is more dovish than Powell. But the final decision has led to speculation of a faster rise in interest rates, which has strengthened the U.S. dollar and weakened gold prices over recent weeks. With gold contributing more than 90% of Newmont’s revenues, NEM stock has dropped over the last month.

Now, is NEM stock set to drop further or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 53% chance of a rise in NEM stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on NEM Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about how NEM stands in comparison to its peers, see Newmont vs Southern Copper.

Twenty-One Day: NEM -4.4%, vs. S&P500 -0.8%; Underperformed market

(34% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• NEM stock decreased 4.4% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.8%
• A change of -4.4% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 34% likelihood event, which has occurred 852 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 852 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 452 occasions
• This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: NEM 2.3%, vs. S&P500 1.7%; Outperformed market

(38% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• NEM stock increased 2.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.7%
• A change of 2.3% or more over ten trading days is a 38% likelihood event, which has occurred 957 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 957 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 479 occasions
• This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: NEM -0.4%, vs. S&P500 -1.1%; Outperformed market

(50% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next five days)

• NEM stock decreased 0.4% over a five-day trading period ending 12/14/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 1.1%
• A change of -0.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 50% likelihood event, which has occurred 1270 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 1270 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 651 occasions
• This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/15/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

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