NASDAQ Stock Gained 9% In One Week, What’s Next?

NASDAQ stock (NASDAQ: NDAQ) has gained 8.6% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 0.4%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (12% vs 2.6%) and one month (8.6% vs 0.2%). 

The company released its second-quarter results last week, beating the consensus estimates for revenues and earnings. It posted net revenues of $893 million – up 6% y-o-y, primarily driven by a 10% growth in the solutions segment (non-trading revenues) and a 1% increase in the market services (trading revenues). Further, Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) increased 9% y-o-y in the quarter. The operating income benefited from a favorable increase in the operating margin (as a % of net revenues) from 44% to 46%. Notably, the firm has announced a three-for-one stock split and trading on a split-adjusted basis will commence on August 29, 2022. Overall, the above factors were the main reason behind positive investor sentiment toward NDAQ stock.

Now, is NDAQ stock set to gain further, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 68% chance of a rise in NASDAQ stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on NASDAQ Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: NDAQ 8.6%, vs. S&P500 0.2%; Outperformed market

(9% likelihood event; 68% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• NASDAQ stock gained 8.6% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) increase of 0.2%
• A change of 8.6% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 228 times out of 2513 in the last ten years
• Of these 228 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 156 occasions
• This points to a 68% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: NDAQ 12%, vs. S&P500 2.6%; Outperformed market

(less than 1% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• NASDAQ stock increased 12% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 2.6%
• A change of 12% or more over ten trading days is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 10 times out of 2514 in the last ten years
• Of these 10 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 5 occasions
• This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: NDAQ 8.6%, vs. S&P500 -0.4%; Outperformed market

(less than 1% likelihood event; 38% probability of rise over next five days)

• NASDAQ stock rose by 8.6% over a five-day trading period ending 07/26/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decrease of 0.4%
• A change of 8.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 13 times out of 2514 in the last ten years
• Of these 13 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 5 occasions
• This points to a 38% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/27/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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