Why Is ArcelorMittal Stock Up 50% In Six Months?

ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) has seen its stock increase by almost 50% in the last six months, as compared to the 5% gain in the S&P 500 Index. ArcelorMittal’s upward stock price movement is much sharper compared to that for its peers, including VALE (NYSE: VALE) which is down 4% in the last six months, Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) which is down 11% in the same period, United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X) up 13% in the last six months, and Nucor Corp (NYSE: NUE) which is down 6% in the same period. ArcelorMittal’s stock is up primarily because the company reported better-than-expected earnings for Q4 2024. The steel giant posted adjusted earnings of $0.52 per share, and revenue of $14.71 billion.

Despite the revenue dropping 3% in Q4 as compared to the previous quarter, the market reacted positively to the earnings and ArcelorMittal’s ongoing efforts in decarbonization, which investors see as a long-term value driver. Additionally, the company remains optimistic about global steel demand, particularly outside China, with expected growth between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2025​. We value MT stock at about $30 per share, which is roughly 10% below the current market price. Notably, the stock is at similar levels as late 2022. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

Image by Abel Sanchez from Pixabay

Factors that drove changes in ArcelorMittal stock 

Some of the rise of the last six months is justified by the roughly 55% growth seen in ArcelorMittal’s earnings per share from $1.10 in 2023 to $1.70 in 2024. Revenue growth jumped in 2021 and 2022, but was lower in 2023 and 2024 with lower steel prices.

While ArcelorMittal has seen erratic revenue growth over recent years, its P/S multiple has seen an increase.  The company’s P/S multiple rose from 0.27 in 2020 to 0.34 in 2023. While the company ‘s P/S is now 0.44, there is a potential downside when the current P/S is compared to levels seen in the past years: 0.38 at the end of 2021 and 0.27 as of the end of 2022.

The increase in MT stock over the last 4-year period has been far from consistent, with annual returns being more volatile than the S&P 500. Returns for the stock were 40% in 2021, -16% in 2022, 10% in 2023, and -17% in 2024. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, is much less volatile. And it has comfortably outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment around rate cuts and multiple wars, could MT face a similar situation as it did in 2023 and 2024 and underperform the S&P over the next 12 months – or will it see a strong jump?

What to expect from ArcelorMittal stock

ArcelorMittal has shown strong recent performance, driven by a positive outlook for steel demand in 2025. The company reported an EBITDA of $1.65 billion for Q4. Although full-year operating profit declined to $7.05 billion from $8.74 billion in 2023, the EBITDA per tonne remained well above pre-COVID levels despite economic challenges. ArcelorMittal also expects global steel consumption (excluding China) to rise by 2.5% to 3.5% in 2025, driven by restocking and increased demand. Capital expenditures are projected to remain between $4.5 billion and $5 billion, with significant investments in Brazil, India, and the United States. Additionally, the company plans to return at least 50% of its post-dividend free cash flow to shareholders through share buybacks. See our analysis on ArcelorMittal Valuation: Is MT Stock Expensive Or Cheap? for more information on what’s driving our valuation for ArcelorMittal. See our analysis of ArcelorMittal revenues for more details on the company’s key revenue streams and how they are expected to trend.

[1] Returns as of 3/7/2025
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates