What Has Driven ArcelorMittal Stock Down?

ArcelorMittal stock (NYSE: MT) has dropped 14% in the last one month, completely underperforming the S&P 500 which was up 3%. If you look at the change in stock over the last five and ten days, it has dropped (-3% and -6%, respectively) and underperformed the broader market on both occasions. The recent drop in stock price was driven by the company missing expectations for Q3 2021 and with a projection of steel prices dropping everywhere except the U.S. ArcelorMittal reported an EBITDA of $6.06 billion in Q3 2021, which fell short of market expectations of $6.15 billion. Additionally, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research (FSCRIR) recently said that the rally in steel prices has ended globally, except in the U.S. It said Chinese steel production, which has been on a downward trend over last few months, is likely to recover in 2022. Additionally, the production curbs are also expected to soften a bit. These factors made the investors jittery over the last few days, which led to the drop in MT stock.

Now, is MT stock set to drop further or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 51% chance of a rise in MT stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on MT stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about ArcelorMittal’s performance, refer to the analysis ArcelorMittal (MT) stock.

Twenty-One Day: MT -14%, vs. S&P500 3%; Underperformed market

(10% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• MT stock decreased 14% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3%
• A change of -14% or more over twenty-one trading days is an event with a 10% likelihood, which has occurred 258 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 258 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 131 occasions
• This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: MT -5.8%, vs. S&P500 1.3%; Underperformed market

(23% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• MT stock decreased 5.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.3%
• A change of -5.8% or more over ten trading days is a rare event with 23% likelihood, which has occurred 580 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 580 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 291 occasions
• This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: MT -3.2%, vs. S&P500 0.3%; Underperformed market

(30% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next five days)

• MT stock decreased 3.2% over a five-day trading period ending 11/24/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.3%
• A change of -3.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a rare event with 30% likelihood, which has occurred 748 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 748 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 365 occasions
• This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/25/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates