Why Anti-Infective Drugs Account For A Third of Merck’s Valuation

Merck’s (NYSE:MRK) Anti-Infective drugs account for 35% of its value, according to our estimates. Take a look at our interactive dashboard of Merck’s business, which shows how the anti-infective drugs will perform in the coming years, compared to the company’s other segments. Below we explain in more detail.

Anti-Infective Drugs Will Likely Account For Larger Percentage of Revenues Going Forward

We expect anti-infective drugs to account for one-third of Merck’s total revenue by the end of our forecast period in 2024, compared to 27% in 2016.

Many of The Other Segments Likely To See Sales Declines Amid Patent Expiry, Biosimilar Competition

Within Anti-Infective Portfolio, Zepatier Is The Key Growth Driver

We estimate Zepatier And Gardasil together will account for over 40% of the segment’s revenues in 2018. However, other drugs – including Cancidas, Primaxin, Cubicin, Ivanz and Zostavax – have lost patent exclusivity, and we expect their sales to continue to decline going forward. Also, two more anti-infective drugs will lose their patent exclusivity in 2019. Furthermore, some of Merck’s anti infective drugs, including Isentress, are facing competitive pressure, which is impacting sales growth.

Pipeline

Our current price estimate for Merck stands at $64, implying a premium of over 10% to the current market price.

See our complete analysis for Merck

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