How Will Altria Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

-10.14%
Downside
60.89
Market
54.72
Trefis
MO: Altria logo
MO
Altria

Altria (NYSE:MO) is scheduled to release its earnings report on Tuesday, April 29, 2025, and the stock’s reaction appears to be historically uncertain. Over the past five years, the stock has shown an equal probability of either a negative or a positive one-day return following earnings. Specifically, 50% of the time it experienced a negative return with a median of -2.1%, while the other 50% saw a positive return with a median of 1.9%.

Current consensus estimates project earnings per share (EPS) of $1.18 on revenues of $4.62 billion. This compares to the prior year’s figures of $1.15 EPS on revenues of $4.72 billion, suggesting that analysts anticipate an expansion in Altria’s net profit margins. This positive outlook is likely supported by the continued growth of Altria’s smoke-free product portfolio, including NJOY and on!, which is expected to remain a key driver in the near term.

Examining the company’s core financials, Altria currently has a market capitalization of $99 billion. Its revenue over the last twelve months amounted to $20 billion, and it demonstrated strong operational profitability with $12 billion in operating profits and a net income of $11 billion.

For event-driven traders, understanding Altria’s historical post-earnings stock behavior can be valuable, although the actual market response will hinge on how the reported results and future outlook compare to investor expectations. Two primary strategies can be employed: first, assess the historical probabilities of positive or negative movement to establish a pre-earnings position; second, analyze the correlation between the immediate and subsequent medium-term returns after the announcement to potentially initiate a trade on the following day.

Relevant Articles
  1. You May Not Realize It But You Need Altria In Your Portfolio
  2. Should You Pick MO Stock At $52?
  3. What’s Driving Altria Stock Higher?
  4. Is Kimberly-Clark Stock A Better Pick Over Altria?
  5. Will Pricing Gains Drive Altria’s Q2?
  6. With Over 10% Gains This Year Is Altria Stock A Better Pick Than Freeport?

That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

 

Image by haiberliu from Pixabay

Altria’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

  • There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
  • The percentage remains the same at 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • Median of the 10 positive returns = 1.9%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -2.1%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

MO 1D, 5D & 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

MO Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Altria, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.