What To Expect From MetLife Stock?

MetLife stock (NYSE: MET) gained 1.1% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 0.6%). The slight improvement in the share price came after the company’s announcement to acquire Raven Capital Management. 

The insurance giant missed the consensus estimates of revenues and earnings in the recently released fourth-quarter results. It posted total GAAP revenues of $16.3 billion – down 19% y-o-y, driven by a 29% drop in the total premiums and a 15% decline in the net investment income (NII). The premiums mainly suffered in the retirement and income solutions category of the U.S. segment due to higher pension risk transfer sales in 2021. Despite lower revenues, the adjusted net income increased by 12% y-o-y to $1.3 billion due to lower policyholder benefits and claims on a year-on-year basis.

Now, is MetLife stock set to rise further, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 53% chance of a rise in MetLife stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on MetLife Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: MET 0.2%, vs. S&P500 3.5%; Underperformed market

(56% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• MetLife stock increased 0.2% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) gain of 3.5%
• A change of 0.2% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 56% likelihood event, which has occurred 1420 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
• Of these 1420 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 748 occasions
• This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: MET -1.3%, vs. S&P500 1.5%; Underperformed market

(36% likelihood event; 61% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• MetLife stock decreased 1.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) gain of 1.5%
• A change of -1.3% or more over ten trading days is a 36% likelihood event, which has occurred 906 times out of 2518 in the last ten years
• Of these 906 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 556 occasions
• This points to a 61% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: MET 1.1%, vs. S&P500 -0.6%; Outperformed market

(41% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next five days)

• MetLife stock gained 1.1% over a five-day trading period ending 02/14/2023, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decrease of 0.6%
• A change of 1.1% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 41% likelihood event, which has occurred 1038 times out of 2518 in the last ten years
• Of these 1038 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 553 occasions
• This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/15/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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