MetLife Stock Lost Almost 2% In One Week, Is It A Buy?

MetLife stock (NYSE: MET) has lost 1.7% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 3.5%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last month, with the stock declining by 7.5% vs an 8.1% drop in the broader market index.

The insurance giant has consistently delivered better than expected results over the recent quarters, and Q1 2022 was no exception. It posted total revenues of $15.8 billion, marginally higher than the year-ago figure. The premiums increased 4% y-o-y to $10.8 billion, primarily driven by a 26% rise in the U.S. and a 23% increase in the Latin America segment premiums. Notably, the U.S. segment benefited from growth in the retirement and income solutions business. Further, the net derivative gains (losses) decreased from -$2.2 billion to -$859 million due to the favorable impact of changes in long-term interest rates and key equity indexes. That said, the net investment income decreased by 19% in the quarter. Overall, the adjusted net income improved more than 100% to $606 million, mainly due to lower expenses as a % of revenues. 

Now, is MetLife stock set to drop further, or could we expect some improvement? We believe that there is a 71% chance of a rise in MetLife stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on MetLife Stock Chance of Rise.

We estimate MetLife‘s valuation to be around $76 per share which is 16% above the current market price. 

Twenty-One Day: MET -7.5%, vs. S&P500 -8.1%; Outperformed market

(10% likelihood event; 71% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• MetLife stock lost 7.5% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 8.1%
• A change of -7.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 10% likelihood event, which has occurred 252 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 252 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 178 occasions
• This points to a 71% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: MET -1.4%, vs. S&P500 -1.3%; Underperformed market

(36% likelihood event; 61% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• MetLife stock decreased 1.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) loss of 1.3%
• A change of -1.4% or more over ten trading days is a 36% likelihood event, which has occurred 907 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 907 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 549 occasions
• This points to a 61% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: MET -1.7%, vs. S&P500 -3.5%; Outperformed market

(22% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next five days)

• MetLife stock lost 1.7% over a five-day trading period ending 05/24/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decrease of 3.5%
• A change of -1.7% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 22% likelihood event, which has occurred 562 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 562 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 328 occasions
• This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/25/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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