How Will Las Vegas Sands’ Stock React To Its Upcoming Q1 Earnings?
Las Vegas Sands stock (NYSE: LVS), a casino and resort company operating in Macau and Singapore, is set to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. Analysts predict the company will report earnings of $0.57 per share on $2.93 billion in sales. This would represent a 14% decline in earnings and a 1% fall in sales compared to the previous year’s figures of $0.66 per share and $2.96 billion, respectively. Investors will closely watch the company’s performance amid ongoing challenges, including macro pressures and tariff concerns. Historical data shows that the stock has increased 60% of the time in the one day following earnings announcements, with a median rise of 4.6% and maximum one-day positive returns reaching 12%.
The company has $23 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $11 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.5 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.4 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself before the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
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LVS’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 75% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 4.6%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -4.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
LVS observed 1D, 5D, and 21D returns post earnings
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
LVS Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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