L’Oreal Stock Poised For Bounce Back After Rough Month?

L’Oreal stock (OTCMKTS: LRLCY) is down almost 10% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was down 5.3% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned -2.8% and -6.5%, down roughly in line with the broader markets on both occasions. L’Oreal’s most recent first-half 2022 sales report, saw revenue rising around 21% to $18.2 billion, driven primarily by a rise in active cosmetics sales and sales from L’Oreal Luxe, the company’s premium division. Gross profit rose 18.6% over this period, and lower operating expenses saw operating profit grow 25.3% over this period. Net profit rose by around 25%, too, and with a drop in the share count, EPS rose 30.8% over this period.

Now, is L’Oreal stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is a strong 71% chance of a rise in L’Oreal stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on LRLCY Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: LRLCY -9.4%, vs. S&P500 -5.3%; Underperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 71% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• LRLCY stock lost 9.4% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 5.3%
• A change of -9.4% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 89 times out of 2508 in the last 10 years
• Of these 89 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 63 occasions
• This points to a 71% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: LRLCY -6.5%, vs. S&P500 -7.1%; Outperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 63% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• LRLCY stock lost 6.5% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 7.1%
• A change of -6.5% or more over ten trading days is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 79 times out of 2508 in the last 10 years
• Of these 79 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 50 occasions
• This points to a 63% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: LRLCY -2.8%, vs. S&P500 -3.2%; Outperformed market

(11% likelihood event; 61% probability of rise over next five days)

• LRLCY stock dropped 2.8% over a five-day trading period ending 9/2/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 3.2% over this period.
• A change of -2.8% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 11% likelihood event, which has occurred 264 times out of 2508 in the last 10 years
• Of these 264 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 160 occasions
• This points to a 61% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/6/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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