How Will Coca-Cola Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

April 25th, 2025 by Trefis Team
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KO: Coca-Cola logo
KO
Coca-Cola

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. The company currently has a market capitalization of $316 billion, with $47 billion in revenue over the past twelve months. Operationally, Coca-Cola has been profitable, generating $14 billion in operating profits and $11 billion in net income.

Analysts expect earnings of $0.72 per share on sales of $11.17 billion for the upcoming report, compared to $11.23 billion in sales and $0.72 per share in earnings for the same quarter last year.

While post-earnings stock movement will depend on results and outlook versus market expectations, historical performance analysis can benefit event-driven traders. Investors can either:

  1. Position themselves before the announcement based on historical patterns, or
  2. Enter a trade the day after the announcement based on the correlation between immediate and medium-term post-earnings returns

Notably, Coca-Cola’s stock has delivered positive one-day returns following approximately 70% of earnings announcements over the past five years, with a median gain of 1.5% and a maximum one-day increase of 4.7%.

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That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

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Coca-Cola’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

  • There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 71% of the time.
  • However, this percentage decreases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • Median of the 12 positive returns = 1.5%, and median of the 5 negative returns = -0.6%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

KO 1D, 5D, and 21D post earnings return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

KO Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Coca-Cola, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

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