Kimberly-Clark Stock Looks Unlikely To Sustain Its Streak

Kimberly-Clark stock (NYSE: KMB) is up around 3.8% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), performing better than the S&P 500 which was down 8.7% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned 2.4% and 12%, performing much better than the broader markets. KMB’s most recent Q1 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $4.74 billion in Q1 ’21 to $5.1 billion in Q1 ’22. However, COGS and other operating expenses rose at a faster rate, and operating income dropped from $770 million to $693 million over this period. Despite a slightly lower effective tax rate, net income dropped, and EPS came in lower at $1.55 from $1.73 in Q1 ’21.

Now, is KMB stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is an average 49% chance of a rise in KMB stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on KMB Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Kimberly-Clark (KMB) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about KMB revenue and comparison to peers, see Kiberly-Clark (KMB) Revenue Comparison.

Twenty-One Day: KMB 3.8%, vs. S&P500 -8.7%; Outperformed market

(21% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• KMB stock gained 3.8% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) fall of 8.7%
• A change of 3.8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 21% likelihood event, which has occurred 533 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 533 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 260 occasions
• This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: KMB 12%, vs. S&P500 4.2%; Outperformed market

(<1% likelihood event; 33% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• KMB stock jumped 12% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.2%
• A change of 12% or more over ten trading days is a <1% likelihood event, which has occurred 6 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 6 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 2 occasions
• This points to a 33% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: KMB 2.4%, vs. S&P500 -1.9%; Outperformed market

(20% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next five days)

• KMB stock rose 2.4% over a five-day trading period ending 7/1/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 1.9% over this period.
• A change of 2.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 20% likelihood event, which has occurred 495 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 495 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 243 occasions
• This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, Kimberly-Clark has fallen 19% this year. Can it drop more? See how low can KMB stock go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/4/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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