Can Juniper Networks Stock Turn Around After A 10% Drop Last Month?

Juniper Networks Inc. stock (NYSE: JNPR) is down almost 10% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was down a little over 7% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days, too, the stock has lost 8.4%, underperforming the broader markets strongly. Juniper’s most recent Q1 ’22 earnings saw revenue rise to $1.17 billion, up from $1.07 billion in Q1 ’21. Additionally, a much slower rise in COGS and operating expenses, saw operating income jump 2x from $27.8 million in Q1 ’21 to $58.5 million in Q1 ’22. Further, a drop in other expenses outweighed a rise in the effective tax rate, and EPS came in higher at $0.17 against -$0.10 for the same period last year.

Now, is Juniper stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is an average 68% chance of a rise in Juniper stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Juniper Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Juniper (JNPR) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about JNPR revenue and comparison to peers, see Juniper (JNPR) Revenue Comparison.

Twenty-One Day: JNPR -9.6%, vs. S&P500 -7.5%; Underperformed market

(7% likelihood event; 68% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• JNPR stock dropped 9.6% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 7.5%
• A change of -9.6% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 7% likelihood event, which has occurred 176 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 176 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 119 occasions
• This points to a 68% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: JNPR -8.4%, vs. S&P500 -3.1%; Underperformed market

(6% likelihood event; 60% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• JNPR stock lost 8.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 3.1%
• A change of -8.4% or more over ten trading days is a 6% likelihood event, which has occurred 149 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
• Of these 149 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 90 occasions
• This points to a 60% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: JNPR 2.1%, vs. S&P500 0.2%; Outperformed market

(29% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)

• JNPR stock gained 2.1% over a five-day trading period ending 5/5/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was roughly unchanged over this period.
• A change of 2.1% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 29% likelihood event, which has occurred 729 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
• Of these 729 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 397 occasions
• This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/6/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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