Women’s In-Store Apparel Could Drive Growth for J.Crew
J.Crew Group (NYSE:JCG) is a specialty retailer that sells women’s, men’s and children’s apparel and accessories under the J.Crew, crewcuts and Madewell brands. Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of J.Crew Group’s stock over the last week: (1) Revenue per Square Foot for J.Crew Stores and (2) J.Crew’s Mix of Revenue from Women’s Apparel. The member forecasts suggest that Revenue per Square Foot for J.Crew Stores will trend slightly above the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis.
J.Crew Group competes with Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO), Limited Brands (NYSE:LTD), and Gap (NYSE:GPS). We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $42 for J.Crew Group’s stock, about 21% above the current market price of around $33.
We estimate J.Crew In-Store Women’s apparel constitutes around 34% of the $42 Trefis price estimate for JCG’s stock. Hence the stock is quite sensitive to (1) Revenue per Square Foot for J.Crew Stores and (2) J.Crew’s Mix of Revenue from Women’s Apparel. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers.
1. Revenue per Square Foot for J.Crew Stores
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Revenue per Square Foot for J.Crew Stores indicate an increase from around $593 in 2010 to around $736 by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from about $588 in 2010 to around $702 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 2% to the Trefis price estimate for J.Crew Group’s stock. In the past, Revenue per Square Foot for J.Crew Stores grew from $397 in 2004 to $531 in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of J.Crew Group’s stock to Revenue per Square Foot for J.Crew Stores.
Our complete analysis for Revenue per Square Foot for J.Crew Stores is here.
2. J.Crew’s Mix of Revenue from Women’s Apparel
The baseline Trefis estimate projects an increase from 80% in 2010 to 81% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. In the past, J.Crew’s Mix of Revenue from Women’s Apparel has increased from around 76% in 2005 to around 77% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of J.Crew Group’s stock to J.Crew’s Mix of Revenue from Women’s Apparel.